Breaking Down: Avs/Preds, Game #24
The Avs staff clearly geared up for this like a playoff game. The rookies were shelved, the style of play was more grindy and physical and the in-game decisions had a win-at-all-costs vibe. It worked. Despite an ugly final 20 minute shell they held on to a 1-goal lead for once and took home a victory that has more psychological significance that just the two points.
Projectile Lineup
Tyson Barrie was out with a “day-to-day” LBI. Z took his spot in the top 4 and Barbs filled out the D-corps. Vlad Kamenev and Sheldon Dries sat in favor of Andrighetto and Bourque.
Scratch: Kamenev, Dries, Barrie (LBI)
Injured: none
Team Stats
The first period started out back and forth then the teams traded goals. The Avs lifted off the gas ever so slightly and Nashville controlled play for a while, gaining a power play. An excellent flurry at the end brought us back to par going to 1st inters. I loved the 2nd period. Avs went on a nice 6-0 run early then went ahead on Mack’s 2nd goal of the night. The Preds tied it up soon after and both teams started really grinding. After killing a carryover penalty the Avs drew what felt like a makeup call and Tyson Jost and JT Compher did some solid work on PP2 to put the good guys ahead with 15 minutes left. From there is was all turtle all the time as the Preds had 31 out of the last 35 shot attempts but couldn’t convert.
Tale of the tape was +35/-55 but after two periods the Avs actually had a 4 attempt advantage 5v5. Shots on goal in all situations favored Nashville 38-25. The Avs kept up with scoring chances through P2 but got slammed 13-4 in the final frame. Both teams are considered low-event, the 111 event per hour pace was fine overall but most of the game was much slower in the sub-100 range.
PP was 2-2 and took back their spot at the top of the league at 32.1%. PK killed all 3 chances and moved up 4 spots to 11th.
TOI
Top 6 forwards at 5v5 were Mikko (led the team), Mack, Landy, then a massive 6 minute gap down to Carl, Calvert and Jost. In all situations it was Mack, Mikko, Landy, Carl, Nieto then Calvert. Sven was low man at 7:43 and Bourque brought up the rear at 5v5 at just over 7 minutes. It’s interesting to see that this usage schedule, top line over 18 minutes 5v5 and massively overplaying Matt Calvert, was very similar to every night during the losing streak but they won in spite of that.
The defensive regime went EJ, Z, Sam, Cole, Nemeth, Barbs at 5v5 and basically the same overall with Cole moving up to 2nd on PK time. Big Z broke the 20 minute mark and played just under 18 minutes 5v5, I’d have to check but that might be the first time he’s done that this year. Looked good doing it too. This type of game, call it late-season or playoff, suits his game much more than the wide open style we see before the All-Star break. Like I’ve said over the past month, the staff don’t dislike his play as much as they have a hard time using him in the less grindy games.
Individual
Good morning Mikko. Another 2 assists (29th & 30th) and he’s broken the 40 point barrier before December. Mack keeps pace with a pair of goals and is just two back of the NHL leaders. Gabe was held off the sheet but is still top 10 in goals with 14.
– The Avs are 2nd in the Central and the Western Conference with a game in hand on Nashvegas, also in a 3-way tie for 2nd in the NHL in goal differential at +22. If they play .500 from here, which they won’t, they would end up at 90 points. Don’t make plans for April yet.
– Aside from a couple of wonderful goals, the top line did something against the Preds that they haven’t in the recent series. Mack’s line has always gone up against the Preds shutdown line of Sissons/Bonino/Watson and generally got well… shut down. Not last night.
Using MacKinnon as a proxy for the first line, that’s how they fared on the shot board vs the shutdown line. Total domination. Peter Laviolette’s strategy against Colorado has been to neutralize the top line and grind out the win with everyone else. This won’t happen every time they play but now Lavy is going to have to adjust to the Avs rather than Jared Bednar having to adjust to them. Crucial point in our favor and shows the growth the Avs are making this year.
– With Tyson Barrie out Sam Girard had to carry the mail on the power play and when the top line was out 5v5. He did just that with a PP assist and another on Mack’s even strength goal. Now he also had a tip-in on the Preds first goal, it happens, but overall stepped into that role quite nicely.
– Varly deserves a ton of credit for withstanding the 15-minute barrage Nashville laid out in the 3rd period. He stopped 20 shots on goal which was more than the entire game up to that point. Massive game.
Burgundy Narrative Metric
– “Best guys being your best guys” gets a (+) Top line + Varly killed it
– Quality vs Quantity gets a (-) not much of either I’m afraid
– Power Play Watchability gets a (+) definitely a good night
– The Dreaded Turtle gets a (-) just when you think it can’t get worse…
– Starting Goalie Battle% gets a (+) Varly got snubbed on the 3 stars, for shame
– Referee Oppression Index gets a (+) I thought the stripes did a great job. From the word go this had a late-season rough feel to it and they obliged by staying out of the way. Didn’t like the call against JTC much at the end of the 2nd but they made it up with another softy on Salomaki right after. Well done sirs.
Total: +1¾
Next up
Oh hey, another sludge game with both teams traveling. Avs and Pens (who spent the evening in Winnipeg) face off at 9:30 ET/7:30 MT tonight (thanks NBC!)
Thanks as always to the NHL and Natural Stat Trick for numbers and visuals
