Breaking Down: Avs/Lightning, Game #10
The Avs got themselves into another vicious goalie battle last night, somewhat reminiscent of the game against Lundqvist in New York. Varly and Vasilevskiy traded saves all night but the Bolts capitalized on a late power play to gain the 1-0 win.
Projectile Lineup
The staff went with the same lineup from the Flyers game. JT Compher’s injury appears to be a concussion although no one has come right out and said it. He didn’t skate with the team yesterday and his status remains out indefinitely. Conor Timmins returned to Denver but no change in his status either. Vlad Kamenev sat for the 2nd straight game, following a loss you’d hope to see him back in and progressing like he was before the Dano pickup.
Scratch: Kamenev, Barberio
Injured: Compher (Haut du Corps)
Team Stats
The Avs controlled play well in the first period, it was a frantic back and forth pace and pretty even at 5v5. They left with an 11-4 SOG advantage thanks to a pair of good power plays. Tampa realized that playing at that pace wasn’t the winning streategy and locked up the neutral zone in the 2nd. They managed to dominate control of the game in the first 10 minutes but the Avs countered for an even 2nd half. The 3rd was a problem. The Bolts outworked the Avs badly early on, gained a PP on a hook that I would say follows the letter of the law but not the spirit, and put the winner in with the man advantage. From there they sat back a bit and the Avs started getting through the neutral zone again and developing some chances but couldn’t get the equalizer.
Tale of the tape was +26/-37 at 5v5 with the lion’s share of the differential coming in the second period. This was a really low-event game, both teams were very solid at suppressing shots. For reference, the Lightning had 33 shots in the 2nd period alone vs Chicago’s non-existent defense on Sunday night so the Avs limiting them to just 4 more in 45 minutes rather than 12 is pretty impressive.
Power play was 0-4 and the PK 2-3. Did special teams lose this game? It’s hard to say, the billing for this matchup was the two best PKs in the league facing off so maybe.
TOI
Top 6 forwards at 5v5 were Mikko, Landy, Mack, Carl, Nieto and Calvert. In all situations it was much the same with Kerf replacing Calvert. The dropoff from the top line to Carl was massive and a big gap from Carl to Nieto too. Mack played 22:45, Carl 17:58 and Nieto 14:27 in all situations. Low man was Marko Dano at 6:36, he had a fight early in the 2nd then got benched for 20 minutes. He did end up playing more than half his TOI in the 3rd though.
The defensive regime went Sam, EJ, a big gap then Barrie, Cole, Nemeth, Z at 5v5 and similarly in all situations. Starting to get some rumblings and grumblings about Zadorov’s role from the fan base and questions about what the plan is here, if there is one.
Individual
– Landy had a goal taken away and that stopped his goal-scoring streak. No one scored at all so Mack and Mikko’s season opening streaks end too. I don’t think it was getting to the point of being a distraction but it sure won’t be one now.
– The hot topic now is the struggles of Tyson Jost. He’s been demoted to the 4th line and had two horrible games in a row, it’s frustrating to watch. We can see the skill and the upside in flashes but putting the package together is taking longer than we would have liked. It’s perfectly legitimate to criticize his play this season and to question where he ultimately fits in with the team. He’s not a rookie and the Avs aren’t coming off a 48-point season, deploying him on perceived talent and upside is no longer an option. Everyone in the lineup is expected to do their jobs now and there’s no more earn while you learn. The question with Tyson Jost isn’t about his ceiling, it’s about his floor. The ceiling is still the same as it was when he was drafted, what we’re finding out is the floor could be lower than we thought.
The staff’s task right now is to make sure that floor doesn’t sink to the point that he’s not a viable day-in day-out player. I didn’t like that he was practically anointed this year’s 2nd line center before the season. I think it was unreasonable given his performance last season and placed impossible expectations on him from fans. The result has been somewhere between disappointing and catastrophic depending on who’s narrative you consume. It’s not a great situation and they’ve got some work to do. Fast.
– Varly was once again amazing and is a legitimate Vezina threat if Gibson ever floats back to earth. Saved all 15 SOG at even strength and 7-8 from a strong Tampa power play. Good luck getting that starting job away from him.
Burgundy Narrative Metric
– “Best guys being your best guys” gets a (-) All streaks were halted
– Quality vs Quantity gets a (-) As has been the trend, little of either
– Power Play Watchability gets a (0) Nice in the 1st, ineffective after
– The Dreaded Turtle gets a (-) Shelling up in a tie is ridiculous. Stop.
– Starting Goalie Battle% gets a (+) Varly for Vezina
– Referee Oppression Index gets a (-) I liked the game management for the most part and I don’t believe Mack should have drawn a call on his late rush chance. Barrie’s hooking call was one I don’t think should be made in a 0-0 game in the 3rd and that’s my main critique here. The offside call on Gabe’s non-goal is what it is, unfortunate but correct.
Total: -1¾
Next up
Matt Duchene and the dreaded Senators stop by for a visit on Friday night. This is a trap game extraordinaire in several ways. First of all, Ottawa is a trap team. Second, they’re playing well right now. Third, we hold their 1st rounder so the pressure to perform both internally and externally is massive. Bonne chance.
Thanks as always to the NHL and Natural Stat Trick for numbers and visuals
