Breaking Down: Avs/Flyers, Game #9

The Avs wrapped up their early East Coast swing with their 3rd victory and 7th point out of 4 games. Currently they sit in 2nd place in the Central Division, the Western Conference and the NHL behind Nashville and have the 3rd best record overall behind the Preds and their next opponent, Tampa Bay. The 4-1 victory signaled a sweep vs the Flyers this year.

Projectile Lineup

Marko Dano was activated after taking care of paperwork and whatnot, he debuted on the 4th line. Andrighetto was promoted to the 3rd line and Jared Bednar indicated they are leaving it up to the players to sort out who gets the greater TOI there going forward. Tyson Jost was demoted to the 4th. Vlad Kamenev was the odd man out, which is unfortunate, but we could see this coming from his usage on Saturday. Varly stepped back into the net after a couple of strong performances by Grubauer vs the Devils and Canes.

Scratch: Kamenev, Barberio
Injured: Compher (Haut du Corps)

Team Stats

I don’t deny the existence of score effects but when you break down what exactly causes them I think giving the team a pass on getting buried is overstated. The opponent is down and really needs to score, the response should be simply to match their level and continue play, not just passively take it. The Avs passively take it and that’s going to lose them games down the road.

The first half of the game was your typical Avs-Flyers tilt, lots of back and forth with two fast teams going at it. Mikko scored early in the game and the Avs went on a nice 10-3 press after but that was the only stretch in the 1st half that any one team controlled. After killing off a Matt Calvert penalty mid-2nd the Avs once again went into the shell defense and got buried for the next 30 minutes to the tune of 33-12. Along the way they capitalized on some good chances and built a 3 goal lead including an ENG.

Tale of the tape was +38/-59 for 5v5 shot attempts with the difference all coming in the final 29 minutes. SOG in all situations ended up 38-33 for the Flyers. Adjusting for score effects (which again, I think are overstated) the Avs were positive in shots and scoring chances. High Danger chances were even save for the 2nd period when Philly went 4-zip but credit Colorado for winning that battle in the 3rd 3-2.

Power play was 1-for-2 and the PK killed all 3 they were asked to.


Top 6 forwards were Mack, Landy, Mikko, Calvert, Kerf and Sven at 5v5 and the top line then Carl’s line overall. Interesting to note that no forward broke the 20 minute barrier in overall ice time and Mack was tops 5v5 at 16:28. Tyson Jost was low man 5v5 with just under 9 minutes and Marko Dano was low man overall at 9:23

The defensive regime went Sam, EJ, Barrie, Z, Cole, Nemeth at 5v5 and EJ, Sam, Barrie, Cole, Z, Nemeth in all situations.


– It’s nice to see the NHL at large discovering what a wonderful top line we have here in Colorado. Mikko leads the league in assists and is tied for 1st in points. Mack is tied for 1st in goals and 3rd in points. Gabe is just a goal behind Mack and 11th in points. Last night Mikko had 2 goals (doubling his season total), Landy had a goal and an assist and Mack had to make do with just a single assist.

– Matt Calvert got his first point of the season with an assist on Matt Nieto’s 1st goal of the season. Who knew having 4th liners on your 2nd line could pay off so well?

– Marko Dano made his Avs debut and was decent. He ended up buried on the shot board but had a couple shots on goal including a nice rush chance. Also added some hits and takeaways and a blocked shot. Nothing spectacular but solid. We’ll see where he is 10 games in and what effects he has on the lineup.

– Varly doesn’t get the hype that the top line does but he should. He’s crafting a marvelous start to the season with a 4-0-2 record and over 95% save percentage. Last night he saved all but 1 out of 30 shots on goal and all 7 on the PK.

Burgundy Narrative Metric

– “Best guys being your best guys” gets a (+) Top line + Varly = win again
Quality vs Quantity gets a (-) Not much of either. Again.
– Power Play Watchability gets a (-) Still gruesome, still works
The Dreaded Turtle gets a (-) Gets worse and worse every game
Starting Goalie Battle% gets a (+) for Varly, he’s on it this year
Referee Oppression Index gets a (+) Great game for the stripes. Well managed and only needed 5 penalty calls to get it done.

Total: -¾

Next up

A Rivalry Night game tomorrow vs Tampa. May not be an actual rivalry but they are right next to each other in the league standings. Should be a good test.


Thanks as always to the NHL and Natural Stat Trick for numbers and visuals


Scoring LW, punchy climber for the Ardennes classics, spirit guide

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