Breaking Down: Sven Andrighetto – No Luck at All

Sven Andrighetto brings forth a wide variety of opinions among Avs fans. After the deadline trade during the lost season he rolled to 16 points in the final 19 games and set high expectations for this past season. A bad knee injury and gruesome shooting percentage at even strength suppressed his point production but outside of that was a positive contributor on the ice. It’s subtle but I’m going to explain why he still has the potential to break out offensively.

Asking for another 3/4+ points per game was a bit much, especially after the coaching staff decided to put Landy, Mack and Mikko together. His season can be broken in 3 logical parts, his time with Mack/Mikko, November/December and after he returned from the knee injury.

Top Line: 16 games – 5G/7A (0.75 PPG, 32 SOG, 15.6 Sh%)
Nov/Dec: 21 games – 1G/5A (0.29 PPG, 48 SOG, 2.1 Sh%)
Post injury: 13 games – 2G/2A (0.31 PPG, 31 SOG, 6.5 Sh%)

Just to point out the obvious, the production more than halved going from playing with elite guys to the bottom 6. In his favor is the fact that Landy really wasn’t a huge improvement point wise (although Sven did it at the easy end of the season and defensively Gabe was miles better). Another obvious point is that his Sh% went from over 15 to less than 4 with that shift, and that’s something that should correct upwards going forward.

Andrighetto went through camp and the first fifth of the season accustomed to playing on the top line with potent offensive linemates. He had to make a drastic change when swapped to the bottom 6 then the injury took out 32 games and he was basically starting from scratch again in March. This Fall he’l be in camp preparing for the season with linemates like Alex Kerfoot or Tyson Jost or whoever out of the bottom 9 he ends up with, which should make a difference. If he’s healthy all year a moderate prediction is somewhere around 15+ goals and 40 points given his normal shot production and a reasonable shooting percentage.

Now to tear his season down and develop a profile of what he does individually and how he influences play when on the ice.

Legend: i – individual, CF – shot attempts for, xGF – expected goals for, G – goals, GF – goals for, P – points

iCF/CF – 0.284, 2nd behind Mack
ixGF/xGF – 0.384, 3rd on team

Sven has a shoot-first mentality, which is something the Avs need and complements a passer like Kerfoot well. That’s not to say he’s not a decent passer as well but the numbers speak for themselves, and they indicate he should be the one shooting.

G/GF – 0.213, 11th on team
P/GF – 0.579, 11th on team

For all that shooting, he wasn’t as involved with goals scored when he was on the ice. That’s generally going to be a negative but shooting percentage once again plays into this, both his and his linemates. This is something he has to adapt to as a depth scorer and we’re going to find out pretty quickly next season whether it’s a luck thing or not.

iCF/60 – 16.4, 2nd behind Mack
ixGF/60 – 0.67, 2nd behind Mack
G/ixGF – 0.627, 19th on team
iSh% – 4.5, 13th among forwards

The first two numbers reinforce that he’s an elite shot producer on the Avs, both in quantity and quality. Behind MacKinnon and Sven, Tyson Barrie is a distant 3rd at 13.67 iCF per hour. The second two numbers indicate how much he struggled to convert all the chances he created. The Avs as a team shot 8.26% at 5v5, good for 7th in the NHL, but individually Andrighetto only managed 4.5%. I’m thinking he needs some advice from Mack this summer.

The goals per expected goal is especially baffling. By definition, a mark of 1 means you score as many as you should be expected to given shot locations and situations. 13 players on the Avs ended up at 1 or better yet here we are at basically 5/8ths of the expected goal total for Sven, no one who actually scored a goal was lower.

That’s a really nice grouping. Not a lot of garbage above the circles and lots of chances from the slot. Any coach looking a that is going to smile about it and want more.

CF/60 – 57.81, behind only the top line
xGF/60 – 1.96, 10th on team
GF/xGF – 1.01, 17th on team
On-ice Sh% – 6.74, 9th among forwards

These on-ice numbers show that he drives shot generation at a level close to the top 3 and although the on-ice shooting percentage is better than his individual he’s the one dragging it down. Same goes for goals per expected goal, where he’s also close to the bottom along with guys like Compher and Jost. Like I said last week about Jost, this is indicating that the staff didn’t do enough to take advantage of these 3 offensively by putting them with better/more experienced linemates. And again I’ll go back to them stubbornly refusing to use Carl Soderberg as a guy that can help players reach their offensive potential rather than saddling him with grinders. The conclusion I draw is that they neglected a fair amount of potential depth scoring, the main issue people point to as the chink in the Avs armor, from fear of not having a veteran shutdown line.

Beyond shot creation and suppression, Andrighetto was also a top zone entry specialist for the Avs (also for the Swiss at Worlds if you caught that), which is nice.

Besides Mack, who is one of the best in the league, he was tops on the team at gaining the zone with possession and especially on carry-ins. Valuable.

 

Andrighetto’s most common linemates were Kerfoot, Compher, Jost then Mikko and Mack. His Corsi both for and against was 57.81 per hour over the season with goals for at 1.97 and against 3.32 per hour. Here’s how he fared with each:

Jost – 1.05 GF, 3.16 GA & 53.36 CF, 60.73 CA
Compher – 1.43 GF, 2.14 GA & 63.49 CF, 58.5 CA
Kerfoot  – 3.74 GF, 3.00 GA & 53.91 CF, 58.4 CA
Mack – 1.49 GF, 5.45 GA & 59.42 CF, 64.37 CA
Mikko – 1.02 GF, 3.05 GA & 60.94 CF, 60.43 CA

Besides having bad luck shooting, Sven also had the worst on-ice save percentage on the team at .899 so goal rates are bad and yes his PDO was lowest on the team by a mile. Sven and Jost didn’t work well together at all so maybe that’s not a good thing to try right off the bat. Early season Mack & Mikko didn’t work for them as well as it did for Sven. The best combo was with Kerfoot which I’ve been a fan of since they were put together after his return in March.

 

What we’ve got here is a quick player that generates shots at an elite level and thus creates a fair level of shot suppression. He can successfully enter the zone with possession regularly which reinforces that. Does he do some marginal things in the d-zone? Sure, that’s something the staff need to focus on this Fall in training camp but having the worst on-ice save percentage has a fair bit of luck attached as well. The same goes for the hideous shooting percentage. We saw a bit of a breakout from the poor luck at the World Championships as he helped the Swiss get within a shootout of the Gold Medal. Forget the level of competition for a moment, after missing 40% of last season due to injury he needed some extra game time to work out the issues and I think that’s going to help a lot.

 

 

Thanks to Natural Stat Trick, Corsica and the NHL for stats, Micah McCurdy and CJ Turturo for the vizzies and SeaMill for helping me grind out our own stats.

 

 

earl06

Scoring LW, punchy climber for the Ardennes classics, spirit guide

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