Breaking Down: Avs/Canadiens, Game #28
Considering all the external factors, closing out a back to back, a Montreal team down on it’s luck but playing a style that works well against the Avs and a few new players in the lineup, this game was fairly predictable. Colorado dominated for the first 35 minutes or so and built up a 3-0 lead then gradually ran out of gas and had just enough to grab two points.
Projectile Lineup
Captain Gabe is back. Finally. Logan O’Connor was sent to the Eagles to make room on the roster. Andre Burakovsky also returned to the lineup. The sacrifice was Nazem Kadri, out with LBI. Mark Barberio got a start in his hometown while Calle Rosen had the night off. Francouz got the start on the back end of the b2b.
Attack
Donskoi – Mack – Mikko
Landy – Compher – Burky
Nichushkin – PEB – Calvert
Nieto – Jost – Tynan
D
Big Z – Sam
Graves – Makar
Cole – Barbs
Gardiens
Frank
Grubi
Scratch: Rosen, Kamenev (sick), Kadri (LBI)
Injured: EJ, Willie (both LBI)
Team Stats
The Habs seemed a little stunned by Jesperi Kotkaniemi leaving the ice after an odd hit from Zadorov very early in the game. The Avs took advantage and controlled play exclusively for the first 7 minutes and by the time Gabe Landeskog scored 12 minutes in the damage was done. From there play evened out a bit but the Avs still shut down what they needed to. Montreal made it interesting with a goal late in the 2nd and another early in the 3rd on the PP. The Avs were loosening up their gaps and positioning a bit and maybe the legs were feeling the b2b. Montreal has the speed and tenacity to take advantage but not the finishing ability. Pavel Francouz withstood a 14-0 shot run in the closing minutes to seal the deal.
Tale of the tape at 5v5 was +45/-55, shots in all situations favored the Habs 40-35. The Avs had a major quality advantage of around +1.75/-1.1 in expected goals over the first 35 minutes. There were a lot of score effects in the final 48 minutes so we’re going to take most of this with a grain of salt. Shot pace at 5v5 was a brisk 126 per hour but each period felt different. Pace was really high in the 1st, really slow in the 2nd and really high for only Montreal in the 3rd.
The power play had some chances to further extend the lead but Montreal was pretty keen not to let the Avs use their one play. Shut down the seam and shut down the whole thing. The PK was solid in their first two opportunities, scoring the winning goal in #2, but a breakdown in coverage in the 3rd PK let the Habs get within one.
TOI
Top 6 forwards at 5v5 were Mack, Mikko, Compher, Donskoi, Nichushkin and Landy. In all situations it was Mack (22), Mikko (21+), Landy (18+), Donny (17+), Nuke (15+) and Compher (15+). Tynan was low man at 5v5 by almost 4 minutes and played 6:29 overall with no special teams.
The defensive regime went Sam, Z, Makar, Cole, Graves and Barbs. Overall it was Big Z (22), Sam (21+), Makar (21), Cole (19), Gravy (18+) and Barbs (12+).
Individual
– Captain Gabe’s first notable contribution upon his return was taking on the Habs 1v5 and roofing one. Ah, it’s good to have him back. Looked rusty at times and claimed to be tired in the 2nd intermission interview but he was big when it mattered.
– Although Gabe returned to the lineup he did not return to complete the 3-Headed Monster line with Mack and Mikko. The staff might have wanted to rethink that throughout the game because Mack’s line got smoked on the shot board all evening. Donskoi/Mack/Mikko together were a +5/-22, got outshot 14-3 and generated a measly 0.12 expected goals. Mikko has looked very rusty beyond the Chicago game. Tough to say if it’s just the injury or whether the training camp holdout is still affecting him too. Either way, his goal has to be playing himself into shape quickly.
– Andre Burakovsky also returned to the lineup and had 3 SOG 5v5, tied for tops among forwards. He didn’t have the rust that Landy and Mikko did and slid right back into his role fairly well.
– If you look at the Avs heat map it doesn’t appear to be heavily skewed towards point shots but the defensemen generated 13 of the Avs 27 shots on goal at 5v5. Ian Cole and Mark Barberio combined for 7 alone. That’s not all that helpful to be honest.
– I think the way this week’s schedule lays out plays perfectly into Jussi Parkkila’s hands as far as goalie use. The Leafs and B’s are tough and generate lots of quality chances, that’s Grubi’s specialty. Francouz does fantastic against shot volume, which is how the Canadiens play. So far it’s worked as planned. Frank had a strong 1st period once the Habs got going, didn’t see much action at all in the 2nd then had to stop a violent barrage for the final 5 minutes. Well done.
– Cayden Primeau made his NHL debut for the Habs last night and despite the loss looked really good. He was inches from covering the rebound that Graves put in. Maybe Landy’s goal was a bit soft but understandable 12 minutes into a career. Coach Bednar gave him a little praise after the game too. This is a guy to watch, especially behind an aging Carey Price.
Burgundy Narrative Metric
– “Best guys being your best guys” gets a (+) sort of
– Quality vs Quantity gets a (+) in context not bad for either
– Power Play Watchability gets a (-) sorry, no
– The Dreaded Turtle gets a (+) another biggie
– Starting Goalie Battle% gets a (+) Frank was wonderful
– Referee Oppression Index gets a (+) Only 3 calls per side which is fine. Given what went on it was well managed.
Total: +2¾
Next up
Clash of the Titans Saturday in Boston
Thanks as always to the NHL and Natural Stat Trick for numbers and visuals
