Breaking Down: Avs/Oilers, Game #19

The Avs got a gift on Tuesday night in the form of Adam Werner coming off the bench to save the day. He was impressive for sure but that shouldn’t mean everyone feels free to play horrible defensively next time out. Connor McDavid owned this game with a hat trick and 3 assists, he’s good. Whether it’s input from the coaching staff of players bouncing around due to injuries, the defensive structure just isn’t there anymore and Edmonton showed them exactly what they need to work on.

Projectile Lineup

The Avs got a player back in the lineup instead of losing one for a change, P-E Bellemare returned after a UBI vs Columbus. Nikita Zadorov could be back for the Vancouver game and perhaps Philip Grubauer too. Pavel Francouz has a concussion and no timeline at this point. Antoine Bibeau was called up in his place. The rest of the injured are still in limbo although Mikko has started skating which is a good sign.

Attack
Calvert – Mack – Donskoi
Burky – Kadri- Compher
Nieto – PEB – Nichushkin
Kamenev – Jost – Tynan

Sam – EJ
Graves – Makar
Cole – Connauton

Werner
Bibeau

Scratch: Megna, Barberio, Francouz (concussion)
Injured: Zadorov (jaw), Mikko, Landy, Willie, Grubi (all LBI)

Team Stats

There’s not much to dig into here statistically since the game was basically all special teams and score effects. For what it’s worth the Avs played to a draw at 5v5, 2 goals each, and outshot the Oilers heavily.

The Avs power play went 0-5, no help there, and sit 17th in efficiency right now. Shot rates and goal rates are a little worse. Think of them as maybe a 20th place PP. The PK has been in freefall for a while now which is very concerning. Just a few weeks ago they were top 5 in the league and with last night’s 4-goal disaster they’re now in 19th. Peter McNab likes to talk about combined special teams percentage, the Avs are at 97.8 right now which is awful.

Individual

– Andre Burakovski was the only player that really stood out positively last night, scoring both goals and aside from that driving what little play was driven. He still hasn’t settled into a consistent role, partly because of injuries but also from some up and down play. This is the night we want to see more often than not.

– I feel bad for Adam Werner and especially his parents flying in from Sweden to witness his first true NHL start. Ok, so RNH’s first goal wasn’t great but Francouz has had similar ones blow past him so it is what it is. The 5th goal he let in wasn’t great either but by that time he was shellshocked. The other 3 (along with those two) were all hideous defensive gaffes. He didn’t lose this game and seems to have a positive attitude about it so hopefully no harm done. He’s a good goalie for age 22 so he can take this and build on it.

– The Avs structure in the defensive zone is pretty pathetic at this point. They’ve been able to outscore or outgoalie the issue a few times lately but the adjustments aren’t getting made. Gap control was ridiculous last night. Positional discipline was non-existent. Even smart guys are making bad reads and decisions. This is all too familiar and looks a lot like last year’s collapse. I’ve said this over and over but whether the staff are making bad adjustments or the players aren’t implementing them isn’t important. It’s up to the coaching staff to make the structure work properly and they are not. Again. Playing solid defense is the easy part in the NHL, even bad teams with little talent do it on a nightly basis. The Avs value age and experience over everything else but if your experienced players are letting you down then changes have to be made. Either start valuing ability more or dumb the system down enough that even the baddies can deal with it.

Burgundy Narrative Metric

– “Best guys being your best guys” gets a (-) Burky, then nothing
– Quality vs Quantity gets a (+) average in both FWIW
– Power Play Watchability gets a (-) another ghastly night in the Ray Bennett era
– The Dreaded Turtle gets a (+) haha, no
– Starting Goalie Battle% gets a (-) not Werner’s fault but he’s been better
– Referee Oppression Index gets a (+) JB nailed it in the post-game, Avs draw a lot of calls and refs like to even things out regardless so they’ll get some chintzy calls against. Sucks, but that’s life. Try PK’ing better.

Total: -3¾

Next up

Makar vs (Quinn) Hughes on the first HNIC in the Cherryless era.

Thanks as always to the NHL and Natural Stat Trick for numbers and visuals