Breaking Down: Avs/Coyotes, Game #4
After a hideously boring first 40 minutes capped off by being trapped in their own zone for over 3 minutes the Avs came to life in the 3rd and built a 2-0 lead. That’s a good thing but then they sat back a bit and got plowed over by the Coyotes, who tied it up and sent us all to OT. Last year this would have been a death sentence but things are different now. The good guys outshot Arizona 6-0 and Andre Burakovsky had the finisher 3:29 in. Good night and good luck.
Projectile Lineup
JT Compher is close to coming back but the staff stuck with what worked vs Boston. Pavel Francouz made his first NHL start. Ian Cole’s status is still unknown other than he’s ahead of schedule. A few guys are “banged up”, notably Landy and Donskoi, but still answered the bell.
Attack
Landy – Mack – Mikko
Burakovsky – Kadri – Donskoi
Nieto – Jost – Wilson
Calvert – Bellemare – Nichushkin
D
Sam – EJ
Big Z – Makar
Graves – Barbs
Gardiens
Francouz
Grubi
Scratch: Kamenev, Connauton, Compher (LBI)
Injured: Cole (LBI)
Team Stats
This game was code blue for the first 35 minutes or so. The refs tried valiantly to jumpstart the action with some soft calls but no luck there. Arizona then had a long shift or series of shifts in the Avs zone and pinned the puck there for over 3 minutes. Honestly they didn’t create anything that dangerous but it was impressive nonetheless. Colorado’s only productive stretch of the night began with a tripping call on the dogs and then Nazem Kadri scoring his first goal and point for the Avs. Tyson Jost backed it up with his first of the year a couple minutes later. Arizona got one back 41 seconds later then proceeded to press the Avs into a turtle for the next 6 minutes and tie the game. OT was fantastic and Burky won the game.
The Avs got smoked in the shot attempt battle +33/-42 and overall shots on goal went to Arizona 36-32. They did win shot quality +1.49/-1.21 in expected goals, which gives some insight into the AZ philosophy. Game pace at 5v5 was tragic at 96 shots per hour, a fine total if this was the ECHL. Minnesota clogs the neutral zone, Arizona hacks it to pieces and burns it.
The power play went 1-for-4 against a hyper-aggressive PK. It’s now 5/20 on the season and 7th in the NHL for conversion rate. The problem is that the PP shot rates are all in the mid-20’s in the NHL and very low. Other than the mega-outlier Hawks PP which is shooting 67% the Avs have the highest PP Sh% in the league at 27.3%. That’s not going to last. The PK rebounded from a weak outing vs Boston by going 3/3 against one of the worst PP’s in the league. They lie 22nd in the league in opponent conversion rate but shot rates against are a little bit better.
TOI
Top 6 forwards were Mack, Landy, Mikko, Kadri, Burky and Calvert at 5v5 and pretty much the same overall with Donskoi swapping in for Calvert. Nichushkin was low man at 6 minutes 5v5 and 7:20 overall. I have a feeling he’s going to be scratched for Compher on Monday or soon after.
The defensive regime went EJ, Sam, Z, Makar then a gap down to Barbs and another to Graves. In all situations it was Sam (24), EJ (23), Makar (21+), Z (20), Barbs (15) and Graves (13+).
Individual
– The 3HM struggled all night with the aggressive AZ forecheck and never got going. Defensively they were on for both breakdowns that led to the Coyote goals. It’s nice to know the team can eke out a win with them playing under par I guess. Gabe looked slow, MacKinnon was petulant & mopey and Mikko was left to be the F3 more often than he should. Mack and Mikko both picked up fairly inconsequential assists, 6th points of the season for both.
– Generally a high-volume shot strategy isn’t the ticket in OT but it worked last night. Arizona was totally sloppy the whole time which helped. The Avs were +7/-1 in attempts and 6-0 in shots on goal. Shots that don’t go in the net are usually the same as a turnover so great job on puck recapture and possession. I have a feeling that playing this way will not find success against most teams so still some 3v3 bugs to work out.
– Makar bounced back from a forgettable night against the B’s with his best game of the season to date. He was one of only a few guys that could break the trap and push the puck through the neutral zone consistently. On top of that he assisted on both regulation goals and now has 5 points, leading rookies in assists and points per game. He’s also 2nd in TOI so yes, the Calder is a possibility.
– Andre Burakovsky scored his 2nd game-winning goal in a row, again in spectacular fashion. I’m always highly skeptical of change-of-scenery trades having a major effect on guys but it took him 17 games to score his 2nd goal and 4th point of the season last year in DC.
– Nazem Kadri has been oh so close to scoring his first goal/point of the season, last night he finally dropped one on a very smooth and skilled shot over Raanta’s shoulder. He’s too much of a vet to have been gripping the stick too tight but I’m sure he really wanted to get on the board during the opening homestand. He, Burakovsky and Donskoi are still looking for some chemistry and familiarity with the Avalanche structure. I don’t know if it’s on purpose but putting the 3 new guys together to figure it all out as they go along is a cool idea.
– Along with Kadri, Tyson Jost was a guy that really could have used a goal or point last night. After getting placed where he belongs at 3C it took a few periods to settle back into the role but he’s looked good all 4 games, glad it paid off with his 1st of the season. DON’T put him back at wing.
– Frankie finally got his first NHL start and did not disappoint. Grabner’s goal was just a ridiculously perfect shot and he was abandoned by his friends in front of him on the game-tyer. Both games he played last year he let in 1 goal and lost. This time he let in 2 and won, lesson learned.
Burgundy Narrative Metric
– “Best guys being your best guys” gets a (-) nope
– Quality vs Quantity gets a (-) quality ok, quantity was abysmal
– Power Play Watchability gets a (-) better to be lucky than good
– The Dreaded Turtle gets a (-) yeesh, almost threw 2 points out the window
– Starting Goalie Battle% gets a (+) great game for Frank and some questions answered
– Referee Oppression Index gets a (+) I feel bad for this crew. They tried, really tried, to do the right thing and help produce watchable hockey but got no help from either team until the 3rd. I don’t know what Zadorov has to do to not get bullshit calls against him all the time. Maybe he needs to start buying these guys lunch or something.
Total: -1¾
Next up
Late afternoon game against the Caps tomorrow.
Thanks as always to the NHL and Natural Stat Trick for numbers and visuals
