Breaking Down: Avs/Bruins, Game #3

I’ve seen a fair amount of criticism about the Avs performance last night and I suppose that’s a good thing. Two years ago that would have been lauded as a great game but not now. Expectations are much higher, which is also a good thing, but that’s given everyone’s feelings about team performance too much of a swing. Colorado played a tough, skilled Boston team and kept up just fine. This is what happens when good teams play each other, neither look as dominant as they normally would.

Projectile Lineup

Conor Timmins debut with the Avs was short-lived as he now is with the Eagles. Kevin Connauton was called up as a replacement but didn’t play while Mark Barberio made his season premiere. Ian Cole is close to being activated so another defenseman will be gone soon. JT Compher has a little lower body issue and Colin Wilson took his spot on the 3rd line. Tyson Jost moved down to handle center duties while Andre Burakovsky got another shot at the top 6.

Attack
Landy – Mack – Mikko
Donskoi – Kadri – Burky
Nieto – Jost – Wilson
Calvert – PEB – Nichushkin

D
Sam – EJ
Big Z – Makar
Graves – Barbs

Gardiens
Grubi
Frank

Scratch: Kamenev, Connauton, Compher (LBI)
Injured: Cole

Team Stats

I like these new charts from our good friends at Natural Stat Trick. Below we see expected goals (dark line) and unblocked shots (gray line) together. It shows that the relationship between quality and quantity isn’t linked as much as one would think.

The Avs Corsi for percentage was fairly even with the B’s at 51% but xGF% was a little higher at 53.5%. Another way to look at it is both teams scored 2 goals (that counted) at 5v5 but the B’s had better shooting luck. Avs had 0.96 goals per expected goal, well below average, while the Bruins were at 1.1, an fairly average night. I use G/xG instead of straight shooting percentage because it bakes in more things we want to keep an eye on. It adds unblocked attempts rather than just shots on goal and takes shot location into consideration. So when you read a chart like this it says more than just who had the momentum at any given time of the game. Being north of the even line is always good but having the xG line above the fenwick line for almost the entire game means that the Avs had the edge in controlling quality chances at both ends of the ice. That’s fun.

CF% has more or less run it’s course as a way to evaluate team performance. It’s really just a fancy +/- stat and tells more about game situations than controlling play. This is why I like 5v5 shot rates, both the Avs alone but even better both teams together for a total game pace. Against Calgary the pace was ok but kind of slow considering both teams like to play fast. Minnesota dragged the pace down in game 2, part of that was their lack of skill but they also actively try to slow the game down. Last night’s pace was at 116 shot attempts per hour, not great but not out of the ordinary for either team so far. I’d say that hints that Boston was the team controlling the pace more than Colorado but both teams would have been ok with a faster game. It just didn’t turn out that way since it was close right up until the end.

This was the first game of the season that wasn’t a total penalty parade. Once again this speaks to an even matchup. The B’s didn’t need to foul to control play and that means that the officials didn’t need to dream up calls on the Avs to even things out, even though they did that to Z anyway. I like this, 3 penalties per game is super-duper. 3 penalties per period is a cluster. Colorado attempted 4 shots in their 2:37 of PP time, 2 were blocked, 2 hit the net and one went in. Efficient. The first PP, the one that Mack scored on, was successful of course but the second was fairly tragic. The first unit was on for almost the whole 2 minutes instead of getting off the ice like JB claims he wants to do and they were gassed and ineffective for most of it. Despite the called back goal the PK did their job in their one opportunity and even matched the Bruins one shot on net.

TOI

Top 6 forwards at 5v5 were Mikko, Landy, Mack, Willie in his season debut, Kadri and Jost. In all situations it was Mikko (20:21), Landy, Mack, Kadri, Willie and Jost (14:05). Nichushkin was low man at just over 10 minutes 5v5 and 11:39 overall. It’s amazing how even the usage has been so far and it makes one wonder how long it stays that way.

The defensive regime went Sam, EJ, Z, Barbs in his season debut, Graves and Makar. Overall it was Sam (23), EJ (23), Barbs (18+), Z (18), Makar (17) and Graves (17). Also very even usage.

Individual

– The top line got a lot of criticism last night during the game but was it warranted? The battle of two of the NHL’s best lines was an excellent subplot, I think both coaches hoped for a draw and for the rest of the lineups to determine the outcome. I’m going to use old friends MacKinnon and Marchand as proxies for what went on with both powerhouses on the ice.

Mack vs Marchand: +7/-9 (6:49)
Mack without Marchand on-ice: +11/-4 (8:56)
Marchand without Mack on-ice: +14/-2 (10:15)

See what I’m getting at here? Head-to-head this was a draw and both guys ran roughshod over everyone else. This is a good thing!

Add to that Mack finally getting some frustration out and netting his first of the season on the power play and we have a fairly productive evening. Landy’s ENG with Mikko/Mack assisting was icing on the cake. By the way, they are on pace for 383 points now.

– Cale Makar hasn’t been that noticeable yet and that’s scary for the rest of the league. He’s adjusting to the NHL in a conservative manner and that’s fine with me. He’s smart and has the ability to figure out how to let the pace come to him without doing damage. He’s still looking for his 1st NHL regular season shot on goal and 5v5 point. That said he’s had an assist in all 3 games so far, although all have been on on the PP, so it’s not like he’s heading for a 14 point season.

– Andre Burakovsky and Tyson Jost have been looking for roles so far this year and both took steps towards finding them last night. Jost should have been the 3C in the staff’s minds since last May. Finally put where he belongs, he, Colin Wilson and Matt Nieto did a solid job against the B’s middle 6. Keep him there, this is what he’s good at. Andre Burakovsky has shown good skill at zone entries in all 3 games and his shot had been good without finding the back of the net. The monkey is off his back after a great individual play – a zone entry of course, a shot and a goal. I’m not sure he’s a good fit with Kadri and Donskoi yet but this helps.

Burgundy Narrative Metric

– “Best guys being your best guys” gets a (+) yes, they were
– Quality vs Quantity gets a (+) a little of both, keep it up
– Power Play Watchability gets a (-) one good, one very bad
– The Dreaded Turtle gets a (+) no time for that noise
– Starting Goalie Battle% gets a (+) not his best game but Brett Heimlich and a few defensive plays helped out
– Referee Oppression Index gets a (+) great game management other than the fact that Zadorov’s penalty wasn’t even close to a penalty.

Total: +3¾

Next up

The Coyotes stop by on Saturday night to finish off the season opening homestand then it’s off to the Eastern Time Zone for a while.

Thanks as always to the NHL and Natural Stat Trick for numbers and visuals