Breaking Down: Avs/Blues, Game #79

Colorado entered the game with a one-point lead and a game in hand over Arizona. They’ve struggled at ScottTrade Center to put it mildly so this was perhaps the toughest hill to climb out of the 4 games left in the season. While not exactly a miracle, Alex Kerfoot’s goal with less than a minute remaining gave them an unexpected but fairly earned point in the standings. Both teams now stand at 79 games played and the Avalanche up by two points with 86. The magic number is now 5.

Projectile Lineup

Mark Barberio was returned after a 2-game conditioning stint with the Eagles. Mikko isn’t skating with the team yet but he is messing around on the ice in knee socks and shorts, which is pretty sweet. No lineup changes and Grubi in net as usual.

Scratch: Graves, Agozzino, Barberio, Mikko (UBI)
Injured: Kamenev (shoulder)

Team Stats

Due to some time constraints I’m trying something different here so bear with me on some in-game analysis.

P1: Avs didn’t get a shot on goal until well after 13 minutes in. They got smoked but I’ll give them a little credit for resiliency. St Louis had a 19-1 shot run to begin the period but only came away with one goal that counted and another called back on an offside challenge.

P2: Excellent bounceback by the good guys. The Avs started strong off momentum from a carryover PP and controlled most of the first 10 minutes. It was a little back and forthy after that but nothing dangerous for St Looey. HDCF was +6/-1 for the Avs so some good quality along with the quantity.

P3: Feelings were pretty low when Vladdy Tarasenko scored 14 seconds in. The whole period was grindy, both teams had good chances but the Avs had the magic. Captain Gabe got the Avs within one with a tip then Alex Kerfoot was the hero with another tip in with 47 seconds on the clock. A point was secured. Whew.

OT/SO: Avs and Blues once again traded good opportunities but no glory. Mack, Landy and Sven came close but couldn’t get one past Jordan Binnington in the skills comp.

Tale of the tape at 5v5 was a +37/-47 and shots in all situations favored the Blues by a slim 27-26 margin. Avs had the advantage 5v5 in Fenwick and High-Danger Chances and were even in shots on goal. Shot pace was an extremely deliberate 93 per hour.

The power play and penalty kill each had one chance and no goals were scored on special teams.

TOI

Top 6 forwards at 5v5 were Mack, Wilson, Landy, Carl, Kerf and Nieto. In all situations it was Mack (21:33), Landy, Carl, Compher, Kerfoot and Wilson (16:34). Gabe Bourque was low man at 7:50 and 6:33 at 5v5.

The defensive regime went Big Z, Sam, Barrie, EJ, then a big gap down to Cole and Nemeth. Overall it was Barrie (24+), Big Z (22+) EJ (21), Sam (21), Cole (17) and Nemeth (15+).

Individual

– St Louis was so completely dominant in the 1st period that scrounging a point out of the night was unthinkable. In hindsight that was probably a little frustrating for them and allowed the Avs to regroup at intermission and start to dictate pace somewhat for the rest of the game. That’s a really good sign because at certain times this year the Avs would have packed it in, if not at that point then when the Blues went up 2-0 at the start of the 3rd. They showed patience and resiliency which paid off.

– Gabe Landeskog, 2 games since returning (early) from shoulder early: A goal and 2 assists. That’s big.

– The Nieto/Jost/Calvert line was tops on the team with a +6/-2 together in 6:51. Only 5 players had positive shot differential and all 3 of these guys were positive. That’s a good 3rd line to have.

Burgundy Narrative Metric

– “Best guys being your best guys” gets a (+) yeah, you bet
– Quality vs Quantity gets a (+) odd game with quality but little quantity
– Power Play Watchability gets a (+) i don’t remember it to be honest
– The Dreaded Turtle gets a (+) no sir
– Starting Goalie Battle% gets a (+) another fabulous performance from Grubi
– Referee Oppression Index gets a (+) Two penalties called and one obvious offside goal overturned. Well done, gents. You can ref for me anytime.

Total: +2¾

Next up

Back home quick to meet Edmonton tonight, who just flew in from Vegas. Sludge game.

Thanks as always to the NHL and Natural Stat Trick for numbers and visuals