Breaking Down: Avs/Ducks, Game #66
After a great stretch leading into the trade deadline the Avs have settled back into the same bland ineffective hockey we’ve seen for most of the year. Without a significant reversal in direction this 2-1 loss to a bottom-feeder Ducks team could become the signature outcome for the rest of the season.
Projectile Lineup
In the most inconsequential move imaginable, Gabe Bourque took Sheldon Dries’ spot in the lineup. Colin Wilson (not a center) moved over to play at center on the 4th. Grubi got a chance to build off his solid performance vs Nashville last week.
Scratch: Dries, Graves, Barberio (LBI), Nieto (LBI)
Injured: Kamenev (shoulder)
Team Stats
The Ducks controlled play right off the bat, racking up 12 shot attempts and a soft goal before the Avs got on the board 12 minutes into the game. From there we saw a nice run to get close to even on the shot board but nothing much as far as quality chances. Gabe Bourque took a hooking penalty midway through the 2nd and Matt Calvert tipped the winning goal past Grubi on the kill. Ian Cole livened things up with a vicious kneeing major which was killed off with help from Corey Perry being Corey Perry and taking a roughing minor midway through. Derick Brassard generated the only offensive output of the night on a slick weak side one-timer on the power play. Anaheim dominated for several minutes following that then shelled up and took the easy win.
Tale of the tape at 5v5 was +42/-48 against the team sitting 28th in the league in CF%. The Ducks are similarly bad in high-danger chances and the Avs could only manage +8/-12 there, including a very meek +3/-7 trying to get back in the game in the 3rd period. Shot pace at 5v5 seemed incredibly slow but ended up at 128 per hour.
The power play got the one goal thanks to Brass but overall generated little in the way of shots or scoring chances. The PK was fairly solid other than Calvert’s tip-in at 2-for-3 on the afternoon.
TOI
The top 6 forwards at 5v5 were Mack, Carl, Mikko, Landy, Compher and Brassard. In all situations it went Mack (24:11), Landy, Mikko, Carl, Comphs then a huge gap down to Brassard at 14 minutes. Gabe Bourque was low man at 4:18 and only 2:52 at 5v5, what’s the point here?
The defensive regime at 5v5 was EJ, Sam, Barrie, Z, Nemeth, Cole. Overall it was EJ (24+), Sam (23), Barrie (23), Z (18+), Nemeth (15+) and Cole with 7:21 due to getting thrown out of the game halfway through.
Individual
“Well, it’s the only group we’ve got…”
This quote from Coach Bednar after the game nicely sums up what’s been going on this week. Since the dominant stretch leading into the deadline, where they beat playoff teams plus a red hot Hawks squad by a combined 24-5, they gotten progressively older and slower and got outscored 9-13 in a 1-2-1 disaster of a week. Out of the lineup are Dominic Toninato, AJ Greer, Andrew Agozzino, Ryan Graves and Matt Nieto. The replacements are Sheldon Dries, Gabriel Bourque, Colin Wilson, Ian Cole and Derick Brassard. That’s a net increase of 19 years, almost 4 per player and it shows on the ice. The Avs looked like an old worn out team this week and I’m not seeing the leadership benefits we keep hearing so much about.
The tragic part of this is that they aren’t locked into these changes at all, save for Nieto’s injury. The Avs didn’t have to send anyone back to the AHL, rosters have been unlimited since 15 hours before the deadline. The staff could dress Ryan Graves if they felt like it. Derick Brassard has two goals since joining the team, which is great, but he’s not going to make a difference either in the next month or in the playoffs if they happen to make a comeback. They didn’t have to be buyers. Minnesota sold off, went 3-0 vs much tougher competition this week and now have a 3 point lead on Colorado. Joe Sakic said they wouldn’t be buyers, wouldn’t dabble in the rental market, but here we are.
– Ian Cole’s kneeing penalty was totally uncalled for. I get what he brings to the lineup, a little snarl in an otherwise non-physical group, but he isn’t able to control himself. On paper he should be a big help to the Avs, in practice they don’t seem to need him.
– Brassard’s goal on the PP was a great play by Carl Soderberg to find the seam pass with Brass moving into space. Fun fact: that unit played less than a minute while PP1 played nearly 5 and got nothing done.
– Grubi had another solid performance on his road back to respectability. The first goal was notso hotso but other than that he got the job done. Since getting lit up vs Columbus on February 5th he’s stopped 69 out of 72 shots, which is nice.
Burgundy Narrative Metric
– “Best guys being your best guys” gets a (-) get a flu shot next time
– Quality vs Quantity gets a (-) quantity ok, quality not so much
– Power Play Watchability gets a (-) thanks again Ray
– The Dreaded Turtle gets a (+) turtles are for winners
– Starting Goalie Battle% gets a (+) keep it up
– Referee Oppression Index gets a (+) Yeak ok, this was another weird one. I think league-wide the officials are in the transition between regular season calls and playoff calls which creates a lot of headscratchers.
Total: -3¾
Next up
Detroit on Tuesday. Just what we need, another team with nothing to play for but pride.
Thanks as always to the NHL and Natural Stat Trick for numbers and visuals
