Breaking Down: Avs/Preds, Game #62
Defying odds and expectations, the Avs have flipped the switch and started playing good hockey again. It’s going to be very interesting to break down what happened in December and January when the season is finally done. This could easily be a flash in the pan, a dead cat bounce or any one of many metaphors but for now they have some of their major issues sorted out and are taking it to the Central Division.
Projectile Lineup
Matt Nieto’s injury on a shot block vs Chicago did indeed keep him out of the lineup. Sheldon Dries was summoned all the way from Ontario, CA to play instead of using Gabriel Bourque. The lines were shuffled a bit (more) and two fellows that were on the 4th just a week ago ended up playing with Big Carl. Grubi got his first start since right before the Avs started scoring points again.
Scratch: Nieto (LBI), Bourque, Barberio
Injured: Wilson (???), Cole (face), Kamenev (shoulder)
Team Stats
This game was really sludgy and slow-paced. Part of that is the Avs playing on 19 hours rest and part of that is playing the stupid Predators who are like animated concrete. Other than one bad shift in the middle of the 2nd the first 40 minutes were just back and forth shenanigans with the Avs building a 3 goal lead thanks to Mack, Kerf and Captain Gabe. The Preds went on a fruitless 15-2 run plus a random power play to begin the 3rd but the Avs held strong then amazed everyone by scoring their 2nd PPG of the game. Score effects took over and we finished up with a 300 mph slapshot whizzing by Pekka Rinne’s ear courtesy of Big Z.
Tale of the tape was a +21/-46 at 5v5, very efficient. Shots on goal in all situations were 38-21. While that looks sort of bad, Nashville really struggled to create much in the way of dangerous chances. Having watched both they and Winnipeg recently I can see some similarities. They both aren’t playing well in general and can’t play the catchup game. Game pace at 5v5 was a comatose 100 shots per hour.
The power play was an abomination as usual early on, only getting 2 shot attempts in 4 minutes on the first two chances. For whatever reason they woke up in the third chance, getting 5 attempts in 1:18 and a goal. Funny how that works out. Next time out they tried it again and damned if it didn’t work. So, a pair of power play goals in 5 chances although one was about 20 seconds long. The PK was perfect on the night after a scratchy showing vs the Hawks and ended 5-5.
TOI
Top 6 forwards at 5v5 were Kerf (with only 12:21), Mack, Mikko, Landy, Calvert, Jost. Overall it was Mack (at 19:53), Mikko, Landy, Carl, Kerfoot, Compher. AJ Greer was low man at 7:49 with half his shifts and TOI coming in the 3rd.
The defensive regime went Sam, Z, EJ then a big gap to Nemeth, Barrie and Graves. In all situations it was EJ (23), Sam (21), Big Z (19+), Barrie (19), Nemeth (18) and Graves (13). Ryan Graves struggled bigtime with turnovers and 1v1 coverage in the first two periods but like the night before they kept him from getting over his head and gave him plenty of time in the 3rd to work on things.
Individual
– Mack suddenly started shooting from the left dot again yesterday and boy was it fun. Two shots, two goals. He seemed a little bewildered in the interview post-game that this could happen, hopefully this is the start of a whole lot more. Add to that a nice pass to Mikko that started the Kerfoot goal and he looks like a 100 point player again.
– Sam Girard had a nice game. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that putting him back in top-pair situations is in parallel with the Avs recent success. He totally flattened Roman Josi early, which was a hoot, then made a surprising pass to Landy for a tap-in goal on a 2v1 early in the 3rd. He and EJ got a little buried on the shot board but not any worse than the rest of the team and high-danger chances he was +2/-2, so effective for sure.
– Philipp Grubauer played perhaps his best game in burgundy to date. The narrative that the goalies all of a sudden started playing horrendously then just as suddenly started playing great again, coinciding with some terrible defensive system changes, is hilarious. Glad to see him have a good show, hope he can keep it up.
– With the recent signs of life the Avs are now in the final playoff spot and pretty close to where they were in the standings last year. They were 6 points better going into the deadline last season and from this point went on a 9-2-3 run that lasted until late March. That was the defining period of last year and they need to match that now.
Burgundy Narrative Metric
– “Best guys being your best guys” gets a (+) hello again Mr MacKinnon’s devastating one-timer
– Quality vs Quantity gets a (-) not much of either
– Power Play Watchability gets a (+) half bad, half good. Promising.
– The Dreaded Turtle gets a (-) beginning of the 3rd was all tortoise
– Starting Goalie Battle% gets a (+) really good job by Grubi
– Referee Oppression Index gets a (+) If it’s even possible this crew was worse than the two Peel games we just endured. Didn’t manage the game well and the calls on both sides were generally rotten. Thanks for not totally ruining the game I guess.
Total: +3¾
Next up
The trade deadline Monday afternoon then the Panthers at home in the evening. We’ll be in the live chat all day, stop by and say hi.
Thanks as always to the NHL and Natural Stat Trick for numbers and visuals
