Breaking Down: Avs/Leafs, Game #56
The Avs played a decent 1st period, only giving up two heinous breakaways and a single goal and scoring one of their own. A series of penalties and no discipline on PK led to a quick 4-1 lead for Toronto early in the 2nd and then everyone packed it in for the night. Loss number 8 in a row puts yet another dagger in the back of Colorado’s season.
Projectile Lineup
Tyson Jost was recalled from the Eagles after 8 games and 25 days in the AHL. Colin Wilson left the B’s game early with an undisclosed injury and didn’t suit up for this one. Word on the street is that Ian Cole injured his orbital bone which would mean a lengthy stay on IR. Varly started once again.
Scratch: Bourque, Wilson (???)
Injured: Cole (UBI), Barberio (???), Kamenev (shoulder)
Team Stats
A big 11-1 run started the game, unfortunately that “1” was a goal against thanks to the Avs being oblivious to a cherrypicker making the same play that had happened just minutes before. After a power play where they got outshot and generated only two attempts, both blocked, Ryan Graves blasted one in from the point to tie the game. The Leafs made some adjustments at 1st inters and the Avs did not. For some reason the 4th line got matched up against the Matthews line which created an endless shift in the Avs zone that ended with Tyson Barrie taking a desperation penalty. The Leafs scored to take the lead. JT Compher then took a careless double minor and the PK was no help once again giving up a couple of similar royal road passes 22 seconds apart. 4-1, game over 27 minutes in.
Tale of the tape at 5v5 was +54/-33, half of those attempts came before the early 2nd penalty fest (20:30) and half after (27:33). Shots on goal in all situations were 36-28 Colorado. Shot pace at 5v5 was a sludgy 108 per hour for the whole game but went from 139 in P1 to 97 in P2/P3. That’s bad.
The power play was weak and ineffective at 0-3. The PK was actually very good in their first kill, generating 2 dangerous scoring chances to 0 for Toronto. Discipline broke down massively on the next 3 however and they ended up just 3 out of 6. They’re still 28th in the league and have given 9 goals on this 8-game losing streak.
TOI
Top 6 forwards at 5v5 were Mikko, Landy, Mack then a 5 minute gap down to Nieto, Jost and Compher. In all situations it was the top line the Carl, Nieto and Compher. AJ Greer was low man with 8:08 but Sven played least at 5v5 with 7:22.
The defensive regime went Barrie, EJ, Z, Sam, Nemeth, Graves. In all situations it was Barrie (22+), EJ (22+), Girard (18+), Z (18+), Nemeth (18) and Graves (14).
Individual
– Some headline days so far this year:
December 6th – Tied for 1st in the Western Conference with a 17-7-5 record. At that point they were 9 points ahead of last year’s pace. Best points percentage of the year at .685
January 2nd – Halfway point of the season. Loss to San Jose put them at 19-14-8, crossed below last year’s pace for the first time since 5 games into the season.
February 12th – Last night. Crossed below .500 for the first time all year in the 56th game. 22-23-11 record puts them 11 points behind where they were a year ago.
Since 12/02 they’ve gone 5-16-6 (.296), which is only slightly better than their pace during the lost season of 16-17 (.294)
– Jared Bednar’s fascination with overinvolving defensemen in the offense and shooting from the point has reached hilarious levels now. When you go back and think about all the goals against that have followed from bad pinches, the Avs shooting percentage dropping like a rock and breakouts suffering from d-men flying the zone early it’s truly amazing. Last night the Avs had 54 shot attempts at 5v5, 30 were taken by defensemen. Just 14 of those hit the net (47%) and one went in for a Corsi Sh% of 3.3. The forwards with their 24 shots hit the net 15 times (62.5%) and also had one go in for a Corsi Sh% of 4.2. This isn’t a regular deal, more of a worst case scenario, and it wasn’t the leading factor in losing the game. I still question why a coach would make scoring much harder than it has to be, with the added bonus of weakening an already shaky defensive team, as an offensive philosophy. I hope he reflects on this carefully wherever he ends up coaching next.
– There’s been a narrative that the Avs take too many penalties for well over a year now. They do take a lot of penalties but they also draw a whole bunch, as long as those are close to evening out I’m not terribly concerned. I am concerned about how many dumb and lazy penalties they take as a percentage though. JT Compher’s careless high stick 200 feet away from the Avs net was absolutely tragic. When you’re on a team with a terrible PK system that the players can’t execute, the last thing you need to do is throw gasoline on the fire. Next time just hit the guy late or something, comprende?
Burgundy Narrative Metric
– “Best guys being your best guys” gets a (-) ah, no
– Quality vs Quantity gets a (+) not bad really, thank you score effects
– Power Play Watchability gets a (-) the late PPs with 2nd unit were ok
– The Dreaded Turtle gets a (+) not even close
– Starting Goalie Battle% gets a (+) Varly played well, no chance on any of them really. Grubi was ok too.
– Referee Oppression Index gets a (+) Didn’t even notice them
Total: +1¾
Next up
A quick trip to Winnipeg for a Thursday night divisional matchup.
Thanks as always to the NHL and Natural Stat Trick for numbers and visuals
