Breaking Down: Avs/Leafs, Game #46
And exhale…
With frustration building through this road trip, the Avs needed to take something positive out of a game other than just playing well statistically. The score is lopsided thanks to a couple of empty netters but is justified by the underlying numbers. They played well and beat a good team with a complete effort.
Projectile Lineup
Nikita Zadorov returned to the lineup and took Ryan Graves place, which was the only change from Montreal. Inside the lineup there were some big changes to the lines with Carl Soderberg and Alex Kerfoot swapping linemates. Patrik Nemeth was supposed to join the team in Toronto but did not so we probably won’t see him until the team is back home. Varly started his 3rd in a row.
Scratch: Bourque, Graves, Nemeth (flu)
Injured: Kamenev (shoulder)
Team Stats
Toronto had a nice shift that led to a PP and another couple of semi-dangerous shifts in the first but that was about it. At 5v5 they attempted 10 shots, 5 were blocked and 3 hit the net. The rest was all Avs. A lethargic PP to begin the 2nd led to the usual flurry against where Toronto scored 3 goals in a matter of minutes but only 2 counted on the scoreboard. Instead of moping like they did in Montreal the Avs went bananas and had a 14-2 run to tie the game. Carl Soderberg managed to put the Avs ahead with an amazing shortie and we went to 2nd inters a goal up and on the PP again. The 3rd was fairly even for the most part with the Leafs tying early then Soderberg again giving the Avs a lead. An early goalie pull meant 2 empty-netters and that’s all she wrote.
Tale of the tape at 5v5 was a +53/-33 and shots in all situations were 38-20. The Avs are inching closer to even for the season in shot attempts and are positive in unblocked shots, shots on goal, scoring chances and goals. Process! Shot pace at 5v5 was a shuffling 105 per hour, thanks once again to the opponent never shooting.
The power play was ineffective again and in their second of two chances couldn’t even enter the zone with possession. The PK killed both opportunities they were presented but still sit bottom 5 in the league.
TOI
Top 6 forwards at 5v5 went Mack, Landy, Mikko, then a big gap to Carl, Calvert and Wilson. In all situations it was the top line then Compher, Carl and Calvert. Tyson Jost was low man at 7:47 and played no special teams.
The defensive regime at 5v5 went EJ, Big Z, Barrie, Cole, Girard, Barbs. In all situations it was EJ (24), Barrie (21+), Cole (20+), Z (20), Barbs (15+) and Sam (14+). Sam got a bit of a time-out for most of the 2nd period and Barbs got very light use in the 3rd.
Individual
– Mikko had a really strong goal to put him back in a 3-way tie for 3rd in NHL points. Gabe had his obligatory tip-in to get him back to a tie for 5th in NHL goals. Mack was quiet on the scoring front but had a good game regardless at +23/-9 on the shot board. That line was aces.
– The star of the night was Carl Soderberg of course with his first career hat trick. For over a year we’ve pined for Carl to be freed from the mediocre vets on his wings and the first game it happens he exploded offensively. Now one was a shortie and another was a hail mary ENG from way downtown so laying this all on the wingers is an overcharacterization but safe to say that he was loads more effective. The Wilson/Carl/Comphs line was a +9/-6 together at 5v5 and spent quite a bit of time defending the Matthews line for Toronto.
Coach Bednar was pleased with their performance but I definitively got the feeling he’d rather have Soderberg back with offensively ineffective players instead. Kerf didn’t have the greatest game via eye test with Carl’s old linemates but they too were strong against the Matthews line and the other matchups they had. They were also in the 67% Corsi club. I’m not sure how long either line lasts intact but the concepts are sound.
– Nikita Zadorov had a great first game back from LBI. He was physical, maybe the two penalties weren’t the greatest thing, and that’s something the Avs need more of on a nightly basis. As the game progressed he got more and more ice time with 6 minutes in P1 all the way to 7:40 in P3. Barbs once again had a pretty gruesome evening so perhaps we try a twin towers pair with Z and Graves next time out. Tale of the tape for Z was 4 SOG, 7 hits and +21/-13 in 20 minutes of play.
Burgundy Narrative Metric
– “Best guys being your best guys” gets a (+) sort of, it was Carl’s night
– Quality vs Quantity gets a (+) mucho quantity, poquito quality
– Power Play Watchability gets a (-) New zone entry quickly fizzled
– The Dreaded Turtle gets a (+) it’s been so long, but I think I saw a small one
– Starting Goalie Battle% gets a (+) good battle for the win but 17/20 isn’t great
– Referee Oppression Index gets a (-) Some goofball stuff both ways generally in the Leafs favor, par for the course.
Total: +2¾
Next up
A trip up to Ottawa to see our good friends Matt Duchene and the Senators on Wednesday evening.
Thanks as always to the NHL and Natural Stat Trick for numbers and visuals
