Breaking Down: Avs/Wilds, Game #1
The Avs popped the cork on 2018-19 with a solid victory over old foes from Minnesota. Even with only subtle changes to the lineup we saw some flashes of good from last season, improvements from some younger guys and an out of this world ability to control the game. The 4-1 score is both misleading and not, there were a pair of empty-netters at the end which inflated the score to where it probably should have been anyway.
Projectile Lineup
Vlad Kamenev and Anton Lindholm were activated from IR assigned to the Eagles several hours before game time, leaving 21 healthy players on the roster. This follows along with what Jared Bednar and Joe Sakic have been saying during camp that having the AHL affiliate 50 miles away means that no one is going to be sitting around if they don’t have to be. Sven Andrighetto is still a few weeks out with LBI. Conor Timmins stood awkwardly on the bench during the opening night roster ceremony. The word is that he’s making progress but it’s a pretty black and white deal, either you can pass concussion protocol or you can’t. He can’t and remains on Non-Roster Injured Reserve.
Scratch: Barbs
Injured: Andrighetto (LBI), Timmins (concussion)
Team Stats
Even with the Wilds taking an early lead the Avs controlled the game from the drop of the puck. In the first two periods they owned the shot board at 5v5 with a 35-15 advantage. Minny got a PP early in the 3rd after a disallowed goal from Colin Wilson, then went on an 8-1 run and that was about it for their night offensively. Jared Bednar remarked after the game that he wasn’t a fan of that segment and the Avs “weren’t taking their ice” when they could. If one poor 10 minute segment is your flaw for the evening then you’re doing fine.
Tale of the tape was 47-31 Corsi at 5v5 (60%!!!) and 40-21 SOG in all situations. I don’t expect this to be a regular occurrence but it shows the potential is there to win the game on the shot board as well as the scoreboard. The sneaky bad number of the night is losing High-Danger Scoring Chances 5-9. There were a lot of perimeter shots for the Avs and truth be told they allowed way too much to happen right in front of Varly. Expected goals they had the advantage 1.56 to 1.23 but after dominating an opponent like that there needs to be a little more to show for it.
Power play was 1/3 but that was an ENG. Not much to go on but I wasn’t a fan of what I saw. PK stopped all 3, which is nice. JB gave a mini-lecture after the game on how they use shot analytics to shift PK shots to areas where Varly is expecting them and so forth. I will say that they were a little more horizontal and collapsed at times which opened up the upper zone area to cross ice passes. No big deal but we don’t want to see that vs say Nashville.
TOI
Top 6 forwards were Mack (#1 on team even), Landy, Mikko, Nieto, Soderberg, Bourque at 5v5 and the same with Nieto and Carl flipped in all situations. Sheldon Dries played 5:13 in his NHL debut for low man honors.
The defensive regime went Girard Barrie, Johnson, Cole, Nemeth, Zadorov at 5v5 and also the same in all situations.
PP1 – Mack, Landy, Mikko, Jost/Wilson, Barrie
PP2 – Compher, Carl, Kerf, Wilson/Jost/EJ, Sam
PK1 – Calvert, Bourque, Nemeth, Cole
PK2 – Carl, Nieto, EJ, Big Z et al
Individual
– Mack had a goal, Gabe had an assist and Mikko had one of each. Top line on pace for 330 points, watch out NHL. I’ll nitpick here a bit but Mack was really stubborn with the puck last night. He’s been jacked up about getting back on the ice in real games so it’s not a surprise and it might take a few games for him to settle in. If this is a mediocre showing from him then we’re AOK. Mikko looked fantastic, I swear that he didn’t fall down even once and looked crazy strong protecting and moving the puck.
– Loved the bottom 6. Kerfoot’s line was buzzing all night although they only got a disallowed goal to show for it. They looked to be around a +9/-2 when together so that’s excellent, can’t wait to see what this turns into after 10-20 games. The Compher line was aces too and looked about in the same range of shot share when they were together. Dries only played 8 shifts but I liked what I saw, 4 shot attempts, 3 scoring chances and 2 SOG.
– Two guys that looked pretty awful in pre-season proved they had another level. I liked the Ian Cole signing but found his performance in the exhibition games a little troubling. I thought he was good, especially considering that being paired up with Barrie was a new thing and extremely tough to boot. Nemeth was gruesome in pre-season but he and Z performed well. I like the idea of putting Z there as the puck-mover, it shows the staff want him to take on some more responsibility and this is a way to start him out developing another facet of his game.
– Sam Girard was excellent, especially early, and proved there’s no reason to question the decision to put him on the top pairing. Yeah, he kinda booted it on the Wilds goal but overall the passing and vision made up for it. I liked his shot generation which I see as a key to him sticking around there as much as playing solid in the d-zone.
– Varly usually gets better the more pucks he sees so a 20 save night would generally be a negative. Not so in this case, he made some big saves especially on the PK and in the 3rd period turtle.
Burgundy Narrative Metric
– “Best guys being your best guys” gets a (+) Everyone was pretty much a best guy
– Quality vs Quantity gets a (+) Quantity won the game, which is new
– Power Play Watchability gets a (-) Still awful to look at and the goal was ENG
– The Dreaded Turtle gets a (-) It was short but evident
– Starting Goalie Battle% gets a (+) for Varly
– Referee Oppression Index gets a (+) The Wilson (not)goal was the only incident of the night and they made the right call anyway. Well-managed affair.
Total: +2¼
Next up
A visit from the Flyers on Saturday night, hopefully they bring Gritty
Thanks as always to the NHL and Natural Stat Trick for numbers and visuals
