From the Staff’s POV: Outlook for the Avalanche 2018-19

Good morning sports fans. The regular season is finally upon us so we’ve gotten the trusty BR staff to throw down their predictions for points and standings in the Central. Alongside, I asked everyone the question: Which player do you feel will diverge the furthest from how they are perceived right now by the end of the season?

Let’s see what they came up with.

Professor Oak (nOakstradamus)
Avs points: 96, in playoffs
Central: 3rd, finishing ahead of St. Louis, Minnesota, Dallas, Chicago (in that order)

Sven Andrighetto: I’m a huge Sven fan, but I feel like the wheels will fall off this year. Interestingly enough, he’s a player who has done a lot less than Wilson and has struggled with the injury bug as well, yet is viewed more positively. Maybe it’s that he’s more skilled and has a lower cap hit, but one of these two has a proven track record and it’s not Sven. He’s already out for 2-4 weeks, and that’s the last place you want to be on a team of young guys trying to prove themselves. I think he will wear out his welcome and could be a decent cheap target for a team at the deadline (but Sakic doesn’t make deadline deals rabble rabble. Deadline deals aren’t very common and he does, so stop). Unless he comes back guns a blazing, I see this being his last year with the Avs who have Kaut, Bowers and a more likely than not top 5 forward pick in this upcoming draft all knocking at the door.

Samuel Girard: This will probably be a common pick, but during this season, fans will finally see the defensive dominance that this kid has. They won’t just be wowed with his tornados, smooth skating and breaking of ankles. This kid is gonna shut down top lines left and right, and on the road, he’s going to be avoided at all costs by opposing coaches, meaning he will crush lower lines. Fans will see his hockey IQ not only in understanding how the game works, and being three steps ahead of the play, but understanding how his body and size works and how he can use it to his advantage, even when he will be at a size disadvantage. Remember when Duchene crushed Shea Weber a couple years ago, stole the puck and scored? Think that, but on defense. He won’t have top PP time until Barrie is gone (and nor should he), but he’ll still net 30 points and be a solid contributor.

QueenJK
Avs points: 88, no playoffs
Central: 5th in central ahead of Dallas, Chicago

Get the bad news out of the way first. This will be the year that fans let go of the idea that JT Compher is a middle six forward and is great defensively. The lack of finish is still evident, unless being fed gorgeous passes from Martin Kaut, and it’s unlikely he will see the type of linemates necessary to boost his point totals. As Oak alluded to, there will be a lot of forwards in transition at the end of the season with contracts up and new forwards pushing for promised spots the following year and will force some tough decisions. On the prospect side, whoever gets buried in Loveland or even sent to the prospect graveyard in Utah, my fear is Ty Lewis gets the shaft.

This will be the year that Alexander Kerfoot finally gets credit. After another season of accumulating fake points by being in the right place at the right time and creating opportunities for others, both the Avalanche and fans will have to acknowledge his value as he gets a generous contract extension over the summer. On the prospect side, Nicolas Meloche will improve his standing just because he should eat a lot of minutes in Loveland and therefore will be worthy of acknowledgement at next year’s training camp.

SeaMill
Avs points: 108, in playoffs
Central: 3rd, ahead of Chicago, Minnesota, Dallas, and St Louis

Bye bye Varly. This will finally be the year everyone comes to terms with the fact that Varlamov is only a decent goalie. He has streaks of genius but those are fewer and farther in between then we have seen in the past. Varly used to be a very good starting goalie but soon fans will start to see that he is not the goalie the Avs need going forward. Thats not to say that Varly isnt a starting goalie, because he is. He has good numbers. But at the end of his contract people will start to agree that his time as an Av is over and its time to move forward with Grubauer and Francouz (or a free agent backup).

I think Soderberg is a player that is somewhat polarizing in opinions, especially between casual fans and die hards. Soderberg’s first year was outstanding. A 50 point 2C who can play against top lines when paired with good wingers. Most of his time that year he played with Landeskog and Comeau. All he needs is one good winger to turn him into a point producing shut down 2C. The more he has played, the less good he has looked on paper. He isn’t a Bergeron who can shut down any line, but he is good and smart defensively as well as having good vision and playmaking ability. He may not start with decent wingers but as the season goes forward, Bednar will mix up the lines and pair him up with a skilled player and people, casual and die hard, will appreciate him more than they do currently.

Vlad
Avs points: 101, in playoffs
Central: 4th, beating out STL, CHI, MIN

Last season, Nathan MacKinnon took that breakout step and become one of the NHL’s best young elite players.  This season, the breakout honor will go to Tyson Jost. While injuries limited Jost to 65 and 22 points last year, many fans may have felt a little disappointed that Jost’s production didn’t quite seem to sync up with the skill he displayed during his stay with the North Dakota Fighting Hawks.  This year will be different. No doubt that fans are still very high on the former tenth-overall draft pick from 2016, but there may be a few who still are undecided about the kind of player Jost will be at the NHL level. Jost undoubtedly wants to put his disappointing rookie season behind him.  Without having to face opposing teams’ top defensive assignments, Jost can put his offensive talent to work and begin to pile on the points. A hot start for Jost may lead to more difficult assignments in the future, but should Jared Bednar keep Jost away from those matchups and allow Jost’s scoring talents to shine, it could be conceivable that Jost may more than double his point totals from last season.  If he can handle more responsibility as the season unfolds, the Avs may not only have their future second line center, but will now have the added luxury of more balanced scoring in its lineup on the way to the postseason for the second straight year since 2004.

To that end, the Avs will also benefit from a resurgent year from Colin Wilson.  Like Jost, Wilson’s first campaign with the Avs was cut short by injury, having played in 56 games and totaling a paltry 18 points, disappointing numbers all around for a player that was playing for the Stanley Cup only the season prior.  A healthy season will be key for Wilson, who is entering the final year of his contract, on several fronts. More games equals a chance for increased point totals for Wilson, which can bump up the Avs’ rankings in a highly competitive Central Division.  He may not be a goal scoring machine, and no one is certainly asking him to become one, but even doubling his own point total from last year (which would actually be one point higher than his final regular season point total in Nashville) could prove to be the difference between the Avs clinching a wild card berth versus finishing as a top three team in the Central.  A strong season can also be a showcase for Wilson as a desirable rental for a Stanley Cup contender at the trade deadline should the Avs decide to move on from him, possibly bringing in another draft pick for the Avs to use in June…a draft that could bring another franchise player to the Mile High City (thanks, Ottawa!).

Steph
Avs points: 97, very yes in playoffs.
Central: 4th (1st WC) over DAL CHI MIN

I would echo Oak on which Avs player will overperform how they’re viewed, since the question doesn’t really say “by who,” and outside of Colorado and maybe clever Nashville fans, nobody rates Sam Girard. It’s not like they think he’s bad, it’s that they see the tornado move and think that’s what he is and all he does. He will absolutely demand that the NHL take notice of how he wins puck battles and moves play forward. They may or may not listen. But we’ll be beating his drum all year long. I don’t know how many points he can really manage, since we can expect Bednar et al to start him and Erik Johnson against the best the other team has to offer every night, but the defensive side of his game is ready to shine and show it can hang with the best. How convenient for that “prove it” moment – he’ll play a couple of the most talented lines in hockey (Winnipeg, Dallas) like a dozen times.

This is the downside of forgetting to answer the writing prompt until the last minute, pals, remember, ABC: Always Be Cfirst to respond. My underperform answer is also JT Compher, though my reasons are a little bit different from QJK’s. I’m not sure if it’s the 877-GOAL-NOW meme or what, but there seems to be this idea out there that JT is someone who makes offense happen. He’s gonna be a guy who either A) gets over played and we remain frustrated that he can’t score goals, or B) he gets utilized where he’s been in preseason, on a bottom-six line with Calvert and (guy), Dries right now, probably eventually he’s looking at more like Bourque when people like Kamenev and Andrighetto return to the lineup. Compher forechecks well. I like his overall game. The idea that he’s going to deliver depth scoring came, as far as I can tell, from thin air, and will vanish into it this year.

earl06
Avs points: 103, in playoffs
Central: 2nd, behind only Nashvegas

I have a little guilt piling on a guy dealing with long-term concussion symptoms but none of what I have to say here is actually about Conor Timmins. He’s a good player and someone every Avs fan should be excited to have in the org. Not as excited as the media  have been over the past year however. He was not close to making the team last year and he was not going to be close to making it this season either. If pre-season is meaningless then so were his performances in 2017 camp. He’s going to have a long road back once clearing protocol, several months of training then entering the Eagles lineup months behind everyone else. He’s probably not going to impress the hell out of anyone this year and that’s ok. He just turned 20 a few weeks ago and like Joe Sakic mentioned in his presser yesterday, we hope he’s got 15 great years ahead of him. When he does return we’ll see that he’s a solid and skilled defenseman that’s not an immediate impact player in the NHL, which is what he’s been all along.

The perception of Alex Kerfoot by the general public, if they had any at all, was that he was a smallish guy from Harvard that got ragdolled by larger players all the time and fell ass-backwards into a 40-point season via goals bouncing in off various body parts in meaningless situations. Some of that is true but he wasn’t the passenger you might think. He’s quick, both with his mind and his skates, and he goes out on the ice with a plan. Young players in the NHL look overwhelmed because they’re reacting to every situation. Kerfoot showed the ability to create situations and that’s not something that can be taught. I see him backing up last year and showing it wasn’t a bunch of luck. By the end of the season I expect his ability and production to be in the range of solid 2nd line centers around the league.