Breaking Down: Avs/Blues, Game #1
Good morning all, the Avs are back at it and so are we. What they are back at turned out to be a bit of a mystery Wednesday night because they seemed to be playing their 4th scrimmage of pre-season while St Louis was playing to win. Not a good combo. Positives were few, negatives were many and the general feeling is like we often see, they were rusty and slow coming out of a long break. While I’m afraid tonight’s game will be somewhat similar I do think it will be more competitive.
Projectile Lineup
This is more or less the stock lineup from last year with a couple additions. Brandon Saad moves into the top 6 forwards with Matt Nieto leaving the team. Devon Toews joins the starting defense with Zadorov traded to Chicago. People made a big deal about Landy beginning the year anchoring the 2nd line with Kadri but as we saw it only lasted about 15 minutes. More on that down the road.
Attack
Burky – Mack – Mikko
Landy – Kadri – Saad
Nuke – Compher – Donny
Jost – PEB – Calvert
D
Toews – Makar
Girard – Timmins
Graves – Cole
Gardiens
Grubi
Frank
Scratch: none
Injured: EJ (COVID protocol)
The new twist for the season is a taxi squad of 4-6 non-roster players that can be called up at a moment’s notice without quarantine. When we get a feel for how the Avs might use such a thing perhaps I’ll add it to the above categories. For now it consists of forwards Martin Kaut, Shane Bowers, Logan O’Connor and Kiefer Sherwood along with defenseman Dennis Gilbert and goalie Hunter Miska. Bowen Byram will exit COVID quarantine tomorrow and be placed… somewhere in the org.
Team Stats
Brandon Saad drew a hooking call on his first shift but the Avs quickly demonstrated their power play ineptitude hadn’t changed a bit from last year. A hideously bad shift by the top line & pair netted the Blues a long offensive possession that was killed by Sam Blais taking a head shot at Devon Toews, which ultimately got him a 2-game suspension. The 2nd PP unit started out and scored 12 seconds in thanks to a flailing pass by Compher that found it’s way to a wide open Burky and in the net. There’s your scoring summary for the night. Several minutes later Ian Cole was caught flatfooted on a Blues rush leaving Ryan Graves defending a 3v1. Easy goal for STL. Soon after Conor Timmins was hung out to dry down low and it was 2-1. This was a theme for the evening. The Avs had a strong start in P2 with 7 shots on goal in the first 6 or so minutes but eventually bad power plays killed all momentum and that was pretty much it for the game. The 3rd period was weak and disappointing and there you have it.
Tale of the tape at 5v5 was +44/-43 which sounds better than it is because of some score effects. SOG in all situations ended up 32-27 for St Louis and expected goals 5v5 the Avs only managed a +1.17/-1.91, which is bad. Shot pace was a lethargic 103 per hour because that’s how the Blues wanted it.
As poor as the power play looked it did end up 1-for-4, so effective on paper at least. The PK killed off both chances for STL. Special teams didn’t lose this contest but had little positive effect either.
TOI
Top 6 forwards at 5v5 were Mack (16:22), Landy, Mikko, Kadri, Burky and Jost (12:54). In all situations it was much the same with Calvert edging out Jost for the 6th spot. Val Nichushkin was low man with just 6:48 at 5v5 and 8:42 overall.
The defensive regime went Makar, Toews, Girard, then a gap down to Graves and Timmins then another to Cole. Overall it was Makar (24), Toews (22+), Girard (21+), Graves (18), Timmins (16) and Cole (15). Cole & Graves were PK1 with Makar & Toews PK2. Makar was PP1 and the new style PP2 had both Girard and Toews.
Individual
I didn’t write a season preview for various reasons, most of which are because there was no access and even if there was it was only 4 practices and 3 scrimmages. It’s difficult to even formulate the questions based on that, much less answers. There was very little roster turnover and the company line from management was that last season’s issues were all injury related. Honestly the best way to treat this season is that the first 6 games or so are where we find the questions and the rest is for the answers.
Aside from COVID, which will have broad league-wide effects, the areas I’ll be focusing on for the early season fall into a few general ideas.
First, how will the two new players, Saad & Toews, integrate and how long will it take to find their roles.
Second, how will the taxi squad be used and will there be players moving in and out of the lineup. Bowen Byram and Martin Kaut figure in here.
Third, I keep hearing folks marvel at the Avs forward depth and I wonder why. The 3rd line is still the same collection of guys that don’t fit anywhere else with no coherent role or prowess. Coach Bednar clearly likes the Bellemare line’s energy, and I’ll admit they are a forechecking machine with easy matchups, but they generate very little actual offense and outside of the o-zone are a liability. I just don’t see much positive here as constructed.
Finally, the Avs didn’t do anything to fix the power play and it shows already. Maybe they don’t care, it’s baffling. I do think PK can be a little better than inconsistently mediocre with the proper personnel moves. Like the bottom 6 forward issues, I wonder how long they keep banging their heads against the wall until someone buckles down and makes changes for the better.
As far as opening night goes, I’m going to throw this in the bin as a rust game for now. Cale Makar is a shining example because he was flat out awful for most of the night and we know that’s not him. We can go down the lineup and say the same for quite a few others. Hopefully we see signs of life, and some offense, in tonight’s rematch.
Burgundy Narrative Metric
– “Best guys being your best guys” gets a (-) hello mcfly, anybody home?
– Quality vs Quantity gets a (-) very little of either
– Power Play Watchability gets a (-) nice try Ray
– The Dreaded Turtle gets a (+) well, we didn’t get this at least
– Starting Goalie Battle% gets a (+) I hope everyone apologized to Grubi for P1 because they left him defenseless multiple times.
– Referee Oppression Index gets a (+) Would be nice if they called a few slashes on everyone hacking away at Mack’s hands once in a while don’t ya think? Otherwise, decent game for the stripes.
Total: -1¾
Next up
Rematch tonight against the Bloos then off to LA next week.
Thanks as always to the NHL and Natural Stat Trick for numbers and visuals
