Breaking Down: Avs/Stars, Game #13
The Avs continued a bit of a slide that’s cropped up in the past 5 games. Part of that is injury related of course but part of it is just evening things out. After taking 15 points in the first 8 games they’re regressing to the mean. 18 points in 13 games is still a rockin’ pace and would give them 113 at season’s end, which would still be a surprise from pre-season predictions. More concerning is the way they’re losing games and we’ll get to that below. Bottom line for last night, a 2-1 loss to a division foe they should have handled much better.
Projectile Lineup
Captain Gabe is out long-term but there are hints that Mikko Rantanen could be available sooner than we think. Colin Wilson did something to himself in practice the other day and missed the Cats game along with this one. Nikita Zadorov took a puck off the skate in practice and while sore played in this one. Ryan Graves returned to the lineup after a night off to give Barbs a start. Grubi was the starter, Francouz is likely to play tonight in Phoenix.
Attack
Kadri – Mack – Donskoi
Burky – Jost – JTC
Nieto – PEB – Calvert
Megna – Kamenev – Nuke
D
Sam – EJ
Cole – Makar
Big Z – Gravy
Gardiens
Grubi
Frank
Scratch: Barbs, Wilson (LBI)
Injured: Mikko (LBI), Landy (LBI)
Team Stats
By the eye test, the Avs came out sloppy and a little flat then got it going in the 2nd half of the game. I don’t necessarily disagree with that but there’s more to the story. I think they got control of the game much earlier than that but mistakes clouded how they were actually playing and Dallas sitting back made them look better than they really were in the 2nd half.
Looking at the push-pull chart below, there’s a really nice trend that starts with around 6 minutes to go in P1 and continues all the way to the middle of the 3rd period. The Avs out-attempted Dallas 34-17 in that stretch at 5v5, that’s a good pace for them and Dallas was massively suppressed, even for their meek offense. What we can take out of this is that the Avs were the ones controlling the game but they weren’t able to capitalize. Dallas got the only even strength goal and special teams cancelled out.
The Avs won the shot battle at 5v5 +49/-44 and SOGs in all situations 39-29. We’re still not sure about shot location data from the NHL being 100% accurate but the Stars won expected goals easily 2.2 to 1.05 so theoretically this should have been a 3-2 loss. Feel better? Didn’t think so. Shot pace at 5v5 was a routine 122 per hour.
The Avs power play looked like junk again and was a net even in 5 chances, 1 goal for and another shortie against. The PK did the usual solid job killing off both Dallas chances.
TOI
Top 6 forwards at 5v5 were Mack, Bellemare, Kadri, Nieto, Calvert and Donskoi. In all situations it was Mack (23:47), Kadri, Donskoi, Compher, Burakovsky and Bellemare (16:45). Jayson Megna was low man at just 3:28. I haven’t seen much one way or the other out of him but if that’s all you’re willing to play the guy then move on to someone else.
The defensive regime went Sam, Z, EJ, then a gap down to Makar & Cole then another to Graves. Overall it was Sam (24), Makar (22), Z (20+), EJ (18+), Cole (14+) and Graves (11+).
Individual
– Before we begin the critique we need to mention Mack’s play last night because he was the best player by a mile. He had 12 (holy shit!) shots on goal and 18 attempts overall. That’s despite having little chemistry with Kadri and dealing with the foibles of the Avs ineffective power play. This is a good sign, he’s starting to roll.
– Coach Bednar’s instinct when Mikko first went down was to keep the Kadri and Bellemare lines intact and fiddle/fill from there. He’s gone away from that the past two games with poor results. Lines got blended in the 3rd for a while and Kadri went back to center which was much more promising. In the last 10 minutes Kadri and Mack went back together and once again it didn’t work.
Kadri isn’t a grinder that the staff can plug in wherever needed. He’s a skilled scoring center and needs to be used as such. There’s no sense in neutering his strengths trying to square-peg him just so there can be a stacked top line. I really think the staff should go back to keeping the Kadri & Bellemare lines intact and put Mack with whoever. He can create with anyone and if that means getting him some easier matchups in the process so much the better.
– Speaking of the 4th line, another temptation that the staff should resist is overplaying them. Ok, with 3 forwards out they’re the 3rd now but they shouldn’t be playing 2nd line minutes. The whole reason they were effective before was low TOI and easy matchups. They are not top 6 players, they are 4th liners that are really good in their role. Don’t mistake one for the other, it won’t work.
– With 2/3rds of the top line out winning is obviously going to be more difficult. I applaud the “next man up” mentality but that’s not working, it’s just too much to overcome. There’s still enough talent to get the job done however, but the staff needs to stray a bit from their comfort zone to get the most of what they have to work with. This isn’t a case where they can just plug in players and do the same things. They are going to have to adapt along with the players and I’m not seeing that yet. Coach Bednar’s post-game comments are fairly critical of what the guys are doing on the ice and while I agree they could be better, they are all being asked to play over their heads. Give them some help. Change the systems and roles to fit who’s left and they’ll be fine. Most of all don’t let this turn into another collapse because the staff is being stubborn again.
Burgundy Narrative Metric
– “Best guys being your best guys” gets a (-) Mack yes, everyone else no
– Quality vs Quantity gets a (+) quantity good, quality not as usual
– Power Play Watchability gets a (-) just fire Bennett already
– The Dreaded Turtle gets a (+) not this time
– Starting Goalie Battle% gets a (+) Grubi played well overall but both of Hintz’ goals were right through the tunnel, can’t have that
– Referee Oppression Index gets a (+) Someone please tell Naz what he can and can’t do on faceoffs because he sure looks like he wants to know
Total: -¾
Next up
Flight to Phoenix after the game and a Saturday night tilt vs the Yotes
Thanks as always to the NHL and Natural Stat Trick for numbers and visuals
