From the Eagles Desk: The Calder Cup Run Begins

After another weekend of procrastination and then some controversy, the Eagles managed to clinch a playoff spot at the last possible moment. Colorado’s perfect streak of making the playoffs remains intact and the Avs affiliate is playing post-season hockey for the first time in eight years. Get ready.

Injuries/Transactions

– Joe Cannata was with the Avs on an emergency basis in Calgary and re-assigned once they got back to Denver. He was recalled again on Thursday.
– Cody Bass once again returned to the lineup Saturday after missing two games with an unspecified injury.
– Sheldon Dries was injured last weekend in Chicago and returned for both games vs San Jose.
– As far as I know, the Eagles are more or less completely healthy going into the Calder Cup playoffs. Timmins is the only guy wearing a non-contact jersey as far as I can tell. The Avs have some flu issues and Sam Girard is out with UBI but the only callups have been the emergency variety, Toninato on Monday, Greer on Wednesday and Francouz for both.

COL 1 – SJ 3

Goal: Joly (Boikov, Greer)
Shots: +28/-34
PP 0-3, PK 5-5

Lineup:

With a timely loss by Tucson on Wednesday the Eagles were back in position to control their own destiny. They did not seize the opportunity. After a sloppy and lackluster first half of the game Michael Joly got them on the board with the all important first goal, which they promptly handed back seconds later with yet another unforgivable turnover in front of their own net. A couple of penalties followed that then a short power play and finally what turned out to be the winning goal against with 12 seconds left in the period. The third period was the usual mixed bag of undisciplined play, an ineffective PP and non-dangerous scoring chances. The loss clinched a playoff spot for San Diego and about an hour later Tucson scored what would become a controversial goal in OT to move into the final playoff spot with one game remaining.

COL 3 – SJ 2

Goals: Kaut (Wars, McCormick), Toninato (Meloche, Kosmachuk), O’Connor (Joly, Aggz)
Shots: +36/-34
PP 0-1, PK 1-1

Lineup:

The Eagles came out determined for a change and created a bunch of scoring chances in the 1st. Kevin McGlue had some AHL fancy stats and remarked that they had 7 (out of 11 total) shots from the slot in the first, at least 3 of them from Martin Kaut who scored the opening goal. Coach Cronin had remarked before the game that he put Kaut on a checking line since he was in a slump. Law of unintended consequences I guess. Along with Kaut’s line, Nick Henry, who had been re-inserted after viewing Friday’s game from the stands, Bowers and Cody Bass also drove the offense. The 2nd period was fairly unremarkable other than Max McCormick receiving a penalty for waving his stick several feet from a San Jose player’s face. Colorado played a solid 3rd period, getting goals from Toninato and LOC early. The Cudas scored with 4 minutes to go and then again as time was expiring to make it interesting. With the win the Eagles moved back in front of Tucson. In the desert, San Diego edged out the Roadrunners which clinched a spot for the good guys.

Breaking Down: Final Week

Summary

Goals: +4/-5
Shots: +64/-68 (48.5%)
Shooting percentage: 6.3%
Save percentage: 92.6%
PDO: 99.0
PP: 0-4
PK: 6-6

Individual

Your scoring star of the final week was Michael Joly with a goal and an assist. No one else had multiple points. Balanced scoring.

Series Preview: Colorado vs Bakersfield

I’ll preface this by saying on paper this isn’t much of a matchup but it’s the playoffs so anything can happen. If the Eagles are to win here it won’t come from anything you can pick out easily between the two teams. The best thing they have going for them is the 5 game format and the fact that they begin at home before heading to Bako to finish the series.

Head-to-head: Each team won 4 games in the season series, Bakersfield gets a slight edge because one of their losses was in a shootout. 6 of the 8 games were played between late December and late January and none after the All-Star Break. Bako didn’t really get going until after that so strategically there’s not much the staff can take from regular season play. Final goal tally was +24/-31.

BAK offense vs COL defense: The Condors were the highest scoring team in the AHL at 3.56 goals per game. Colorado’s defense is mid-pack at 17th and 3.01 goals against per game. Bako is a volume shooting team, 3rd in the league at 32.78 per game while the Eagles give up 2nd most at 33.62. Head to head the Eagles gave up over 36 per game with a high of 51 so we could see some big numbers here.

COL offense vs BAK defense: The Eagles were 24th in scoring at 2.81 per game but weren’t even close to that down the stretch at only 1.67 in the last 9. The Condors ranked 4th in defense at 2.68 goals against per game so this isn’t very promising. I’m going to cherrypick a little here just to demonstrate the dropoff Colorado had between the 9-game win streak and the final 9 games where they went 3-6-0 with 2 shootout wins. Here is what the Eagles top scorers did in those streaks:

That’s a major dropoff. When you look at it from a team perspective they dropped off almost an entire goal per game just from these 10 players. Granted the schedule was tougher but this is alarming from a system and roster construction standpoint. I also find it alarming that they added two skilled forwards in Nick Henry and Shane Bowers and neither produced a point in 7 man/games.

Special Teams: Bakersfield’s power play is strong and finished 7th in the league while Colorado’s penalty kill was 6th and tied for 2nd in the league with 16 shorthanded goals. I’d give a slight edge to the Eagles here and it’s going to be crucial to keep them at bay with all the penalties they take. The Condors PK is mid-pack but that doesn’t matter much since the Eagles never score on the PP. Colorado got blanked in their last 6 games and only have 1 power play goal in their last 43 chances. They finished last in the AHL in both percentage and total PPGs. Not that I expect it but this is one area they could surprise the hell out of everyone and gain an advantage in the series.

Goaltending: Both teams have good starting goalies. Shane Starrett and Pavel Francouz have identical save percentages (.918) and win totals (27) on the season. Francouz has a lot more experience and if that becomes a factor it should help the Eagles.

Overall: It’s going to be an interesting battle. Bakersfield is all about shot volume and outscoring the opponent while Colorado tries to suppress everything including their own offense. I don’t think that has a prayer of working so I’d love to see the Eagles’ staff follow Jared Bednar’s lead and fight fire with fire. Instead of trying to beat the Condors, become the Condors. Like the Flames I doubt they would have an answer.

Next up

The run to the Calder Cup begins Friday & Saturday nights at home vs Bakersfield

Thanks to the AHL for stats and standings and to the Colorado Eagles for the feature photo.