Breaking Down: Avs/VGKs, Game #77

While not a schedule loss this matchup was one of the big hurdles down the stretch for the Avs. Staying competitive would have been acceptable, points were a bonus and they got both. That puts them 2 points up on Arizona going into the big showdown on Friday night, which is nice.

Projectile Lineup

Mikko’s injury remains a mystery and he’s not at the “skating with the team” stage yet. Captain Gabe is skating with the team and looks like he may return to the lineup sooner rather than later. Matt Nieto did return to the lineup and shoutout to the NBC crew for indicating he had a broken foot. His return allowed the staff to go with the traditional 4 lines/3 pairs setup, giving Ryan Graves the night off. Mark Barberio was assigned to the Eagles on a conditioning loan after his struggle with LBI. Groob was in net for the 6th straight game.

Scratch: Graves, Mikko (UBI), Landy (shoulder), Barbs (LBI, Conditioning Loan to the Eagles)
Injured: Kamenev (shoulder)

Team Stats

This game had an odd oscillation with the Avs being very competitive early in periods then fading. Not sure what to make of that, the Hurricanes do this often and there’s not a good explanation for that either. Regardless, Colorado came out surprisingly strong in the 1st period and before you knew it were up 2-0. Vegas got some momentum for a shift or two and a quick 9-0 run but the Avs managed to neutralize it. The Knights ramped up their neutral zone play in the 2nd which made it very grindy but Tyson Barrie scored for a 3-0 lead anyway. Vegas went into desperation mode and clawed back to within one but Gabriel Bourque got the eventual game-winner near the end of the frame. The Avs have been going into massive turtle mode lately but they were fired up for the first 10 minutes of the 3rd at least. Plenty of back and forth and scoring chances and got some help from a dumb penalty by the Knights. That left about 6 minutes of clenchy play to end the game. Vegas came within one but got no further and that’s all she wrote.

Tale of the tape at 5v5 was +34/-55 and shots in all situations favored the Knights 37-30. Funny how the Avs shot share craters when they’re winning. The thing I liked most here was the lack of a serious shell in the 3rd period. They kept the pressure on and persevered. If they had played like they did against Chicago the outcome could have been very different. Shot pace at 5v5 was a leisurely 107 per hour and like the Chicago games this doesn’t match up with what was happening on the ice. Lots of action, just not a lot of shots.

The power play came through as Mack got his first goal in what seems like forever, 1 for 2 on the evening. The PK stopped all 3 chances which sounds like a lot but wasn’t. One came very early when the Avs were dominating and the 3rd was with 7 seconds left in the game.

TOI

Top 6 forwards at 5v5 were Mack, Kerf, Carl, Compher, Wilson and Nieto. In all situations it was Mack (21:18), Compher, Kerfoot, Carl, Wilson then a big gap down to Nieto (15:37). Aggz was low man at 5:46, first time it’s been a forward in a while.

The defensive regime went Barrie, EJ, Sam, Cole, Big Z then a big gap to Nemeth. Overall it was EJ (22+), Barrie (22+), Cole (20+), Sam (19), Z (16+) and Nemeth (15).

Individual

– Tyson Barrie and Nathan MacKinnon scored so there was a good mix with stars and depth guys contributing. Barrie moved into 1st place all time in goals by defensemen for the Avalanche. Nate added an assist to get to 94 points, tied for 6th in the NHL with his buddy Sid. Tyson Barrie is tied for 6th in NHL scoring by defensemen with Kris Letang at 56.

– Matt Nieto’s return allowed the staff to ice 12 forwards for the first time in a while. Maybe it was the 2 days off as well but they definitely didn’t look as gassed as usual in the 3rd period and the turtle wasn’t nearly as evident as against Dallas and Chicago this past week. Nieto played mainly on the 4th line with Bourque/Agozzino and his usual spot on Carl’s line along with some ad hoc lines later in the game. He looked a little rusty at times but definitely a good guy to have back in the lineup. He’s pretty underrated.

– Grubi didn’t have to steal this one but he still played at a very high level. A .919 night doesn’t stand out against bunches of .960s and .970s but it was just as important. With 6 starts in a row it’s pretty clear that the season rests on his shoulders now.

– Here’s the wild card situation as of this morning:

The Hawks and Oilers are all but gone. Minnesota plays at Vegas, who never lose at home, on Friday night. That could be it for them. The race is to 88 or 89 points for the last spot and the Avs/Yotes game on Friday might determine the winner. Last year the Avs had a one-game play-in on the final day, this year it comes a week early. A 4 point lead with 4 to go is pretty safe despite some tough opponents in the final week. Tied with 4 to go would be a gut-wrenching roller coaster.

Burgundy Narrative Metric

– “Best guys being your best guys” gets a (+) Those who are left were good yes
– Quality vs Quantity gets a (-) little of either as usual
– Power Play Watchability gets a (-) 1st one very good, 2nd one very bad
– The Dreaded Turtle gets a (-) it happened but as turtles go not bad at all
– Starting Goalie Battle% gets a (+) Grubi got jobbed in the 3 stars but he was on it once again
– Referee Oppression Index gets a (+) Called a decent game but they blew it on the Marchessault-Andrighetto altercation in my opinion. That was the time to put a little management in the game and they missed the opportunity.

Total: +2¾

Next up

The Big One. Avs vs Coyotes on Friday night while the Eagles play the AZ affiliate in Tucson in much the same situation.

Thanks as always to the NHL and Natural Stat Trick for numbers and visuals