Breaking Down: Avs/Hawks, Game #61
Things are looking up in Avs land. Still aren’t in a playoff spot but they aren’t watching one fade in the rear-view mirror anymore. Chicago now has 3 more regulation losses and a hideous goal differential compared to Colorado but the real competition seems to be above them, not below.
Projectile Lineup
Same lineup for 3 games in a row now. Coach Bednar seems to both like and dislike the new lines on a minute by minute basis. Sheldon Dries was called up after the game, most likely as insurance against Matt Nieto leaving in the 2nd period last night. Dries was in Ontario, CA so there’s no guarantee he makes it to the rink on time with today’s early start.
Scratch: Barbs, Bourque
Injured: Wilson (???), Cole (face), Kamenev (shoulder)
Team Stats
No team should have to deal with Tim Peel officiating two games in a row but here we are. The Hawks created a lot of shots in their 21-5 run that took up most of the 1st period but not much of the dangerous variety. Carl Soderberg picked up his first of two goals on the night along the way anyhow. The Avs gained momentum to begin P2 with a solid 14-5 run but the Hawks actually use their power play to score rather than noodle around endlessly and they tied the game 1-1 at halfway. Reminded of this, Gabe Landeskog found JT Compher wide open in the slot on the Avs next PP and the Avs went up again only to let down immediately and bestow a goal on Patrick Kane. This looked fairly dark at 2nd intermission but the resiliency is back in Colorado’s game and they managed to win a sludgy 3rd period with more Landy and Comphs plus an ENG for insurance.
Tale of the tape at 5v5 was a +39/-54, funny how shot share has gone back to normal now that the Avs aren’t trailing most of the time. Shots in all situations favored the Hawks 44-31. Game pace at 5v5 was a fairly pedestrian 118 per hour.
The power play succeeded once in four tries and the PK got smoked, only stopping half of the Hawks four chances.
TOI
Top 6 forwards at 5v5 were Mack, Mikko, Landy, Carl, Kerf and Calvert. In all situations it was the same with Compher slotting in for Kerfoot. The 4th line was ignored for most of the 2nd half of the game. Greer was low man with 5:07 and only 3 shifts in the final 36 minutes. Matt Nieto left the ice in pain after blocking a shot in the 2nd period, returned for a shift then got shut down. No word on his status for today.
The defensive regime went Z, Barrie, EJ, Sam, then a big gap to Nemeth and Graves. In all situations it was Barrie (21+), EJ (21), Z (20), Sam (20), Nemeth (18) and Graves (12). Ryan Graves got light use with the PK struggling and a fast opponent. I like that the staff aren’t putting him in situations where he’s going to be over his head.
Individual
– The power play sits 9th in the league at 22%, which many people look at and say it’s fine, but it was well over 30% for most of October and November and that’s propping it up. Since January 1st it’s 27th in the NHL at under 14%. Some of this is personnel related, Tyson Barrie has one point on the PP in the last month, but mostly it’s a coaching issue. This isn’t new either, last year the Avs were also 9th in the league despite being extremely ineffective. They draw more penalties than anyone else in the league by a wide margin yet it only rarely helps them win games.
This is a chronic issue going back many years, Ray Bennett was brought in to fix it and he’s done nothing to help. This chart shows the unblocked shot locations on the PP this year:
The threat level is key here, it’s basically a measure of shot selection and volume and -9% is quite bad. Last season it was even worse at -17%. The thing to take out of this is that the system makes them worse, it’s not luck or a shooting percentage problem. The PP system isn’t built to funnel shots to the middle where most teams score from, it’s made to pass around the perimeter until someone says screw it and shoots from a non-dangerous location. The Avs have so much scoring talent that despite that they still put pucks in the net but it could be so much more effective. Ray Bennett isn’t helping, it’s time to move on and get someone else who’s familiar with modern offense.
Burgundy Narrative Metric
– “Best guys being your best guys” gets a (-) not really
– Quality vs Quantity gets a (-) quality was ok, not much quantity
– Power Play Watchability gets a (-) what a disaster
– The Dreaded Turtle gets a (+) no thanks!
– Starting Goalie Battle% gets a (+) Varly’s been as good as he’s ever been lately
– Referee Oppression Index gets a (+) Terrible officiating with Tim Peel is par for the course. No rhyme or reason to any of the calls and poor management throughout. This almost determined the outcome of the game, yeesh.
Total: +2¾
Next up
Quickly off to Nashvegas for a 5:30pm ET start today
Thanks as always to the NHL and Natural Stat Trick for numbers and visuals
