Breaking Down: Avs/Stars, Game #33

Coach Bednar was looking for a response after the tragedy on Friday night, especially from the top line, and boy did they come through. This was a long game, over 3 hours from green to checkers, and went through several phases. Each challenge that the Stars presented the Avs answered and took home the 6-4 victory.

Projectile Lineup

Other than the goalie swap no lineup changes from the Blues game.

Scratch: Alt, Kerfoot (UBI)
Injured: Barberio (UBI), Kamenev (shoulder)

Team Stats

The Avs came out fast, focused and terrifying and immediately went on a 11-1 shot run which involved a brutally short 17 second PP. By the end of P1 they had scored 5 goals, although 2 of them were deemed unworthy by the officials. Coach Monty lit the Stars’ backsides on fire or something at intermission and they came out strong and physical. A passive power play lead to a shortie against and another whoopsie let Tyler Seguin get Dallas within 1. Mikko decided to 1up Gabe by scoring only 13 seconds into a PP late to extend the Avs lead. All seemed well. The physical violence continued in the 3rd, JT Compher was viciously boarded and elbowed in the head 5 minutes in while the refs looked on. A couple of fruitless power plays followed then Carl Soderberg smacked Ben Bishop in the head which lead to a Stars goal then another soon after to tie with less than 5 minutes remaining. Ok fine, Captain Gabe scored the game-winner a minute later then Mack added an ENG for insurance.

Tale of the tape at 5v5 was +39/-45 which was highly score effected. Shots on goal in all situations were much closer, 42-37 for Dallas. In the 1st period the Avs had 18 scoring chances and put the puck in the net 5 times. Dallas had 3. The amount of multi-goal comebacks in the NHL this year is staggering. I don’t think they’re manufactured, it’s more about the coaches understanding of game theory and knowing how to press a team that’s in the lead. It’s easy to say just keep scoring and the win will be there but defending a team that’s selling out on every play to get back in the game isn’t as simple as playing your game and continuing to dominate.

Game pace at 5v5 was a healthy 119 shots per hour.

Power play rebounded well going 3 for 7 and are just 0.4% behind Winnipeg for the NHL lead. The Avs, Jets and Bolts are the class of the league and look like they’ll be swapping the top spot all year. PK stopped 2 of 3 chances and continue to bounce around 20th in the league. Would be nice to tighten that up before the 2nd half of the season.

TOI

Top 6 forwards at 5v5 were Jost, Compher, Landy, Sven, Mack and Mikko. Wow, didn’t see that coming. In all situations it went Landy, Mack, Mikko, Compher, Carl, Jost like you would expect. Compher’s TOI is impressive since he only played 2:20 in the 3rd. He was on pace for just under 24 minutes and around 16 at 5v5 after the 2nd period. AJ Greer was low man at 5:28.

The defensive regime went Sam, Cole, Barrie, EJ, Nemeth, Z at 5v5 and Barrie, EJ, Sam, Nemeth, Cole, Z in all situations.

Individual

– We like these guys

Figures circulating that these 3 fellows have more points than the Kings entire forward corps, which is cool. Mikko and Mack are still yarding the field and the only guys over 50 points. Landy and Mack are close to 50 goal pace and now Mikko is around 40. Stunning.

– Let’s talk about defensive usage some more. Not sure what the staff are seeing with Big Z but underusing him seems to be hurting the team. Nemeth and Cole played 91 seconds together over a couple of shifts, including the Stars tying goal. They were +0/-9, that’s hideous. Why would you play those two together? EVER. Zadorov props Nemeth up and yet the thinking seems to be that Nemo does all the work. If you’d like some insight as to why the Stars got back into the game then look at shift lengths and usage in the 2nd/3rd periods. It was a self-fulfilling prophecy. I realize the situation was pretty dire after blowing it in St Louis but playing conservative with a lead has been severely penalized this year in the NHL. It flat out does not work. Moving the puck is the only solution and shot-blocking to victory only leads to pain.

– Update on the 4th line. Still doesn’t have a center and still isn’t effective. I liked their work in the 1st period but with the pressure on the lack of an F3 and puck-mover made them a black hole. I’ll let the Eagles being in California be an excuse over the b2b but this needs to get fixed pronto.

Burgundy Narrative Metric

– “Best guys being your best guys” gets a (+) back to awesome
– Quality vs Quantity gets a (+) for P1, after that was not good
– Power Play Watchability gets a (-) 2 great, 1 ok, 3 bad, 1 horrifying
– The Dreaded Turtle gets a (-) 50 minute turtle, nice
– Starting Goalie Battle% gets a (-) the win will help Varly more than looking at his play, which wasn’t that great
– Referee Oppression Index gets a (-) This crew can go jump in a frozen lake. The Greer/Willie goal was fine, they screwed that call up bigtime. Carl’s goal ok, that’s GI. Maybe they didn’t see Hanzal assaulting Sam but there’s no way on god’s green earth they missed Honka hitting Compher square in the numbers and elbowing his head into the boards. Is he invisible somehow? Friday he got sat on for 20 seconds with no call and then this.

Total: +2¾

Next up

A day off then the Isles, Habs, Hawks on Monday, Wednesday, Friday

Thanks as always to the NHL and Natural Stat Trick for numbers and visuals