Breaking Down: Avs/Stars, Game #23

The Avs won a sludge game (both teams on back-to-back with travel) against the division rival Stars in a rousing comeback late in the 3rd period. Both teams ground each other down for most of the first 50 minutes but they were saving the fun part for the end. Four goals in the final 9 minutes made for an electric finish with the good guys coming out on top 3-2.

Projectile Lineup

Other than swapping Grubi for Varly, no lineup changes from Friday night in Phoenix.

Scratch: Sven, Bourque, Barbs
Injured: none

Team Stats

Both teams plodded through the opening few minutes until Dallas was caught with too much man and then immediately got a breakaway where Captain Gabe had to take a foul to even things up. After an opening flurry by the Stars, the Avs gradually began to take over play in the 2nd period with a 15-1 run that took up most of the 5v5 time in the period and gave us a 1-0 lead. The 3rd was a turtle situation for the Avs and Dallas took advantage twice in less than 4 minutes to go ahead by 1. Things were looking bleak but Colorado went into turbo mode with a terrifying 11 shot run in only 3 minutes which produced the tying goal from JT Compher and Mikko’s tap-in for the GWG.

Tale of the tape was +57/-34 at 5v5 and there really weren’t any score effects at all. Shots on goal in all situations were 36-29. Even though all the scoring action was at the end all the shot metrics (Corsi, fenwick, scoring chances, high-danger chances) reflected the 60% goals for. 5v5 shot pace was a strong 114 per hour. For the Avs, this was a possession masterpiece.

PP was 0-4 and looked pretty awful but even so are tied with Winnipeg for the top spot in the league. PK killed off both chances but managed to drop a spot to 15th anyway.

TOI

Top 6 forwards at 5v5 were Mack, Landy, Mikko then Jost, Calvert, Kerfoot and the top line then Carl, Jost and Wilson overall. Sheldon Dries was low man overall at 8:38. The top line was around 16 minutes at 5v5 and that’s usually an indicator when they win.

The defensive regime went Cole, EJ, Sam, Barrie, Z, Nemeth at 5v5 and EJ, Cole, Barrie, Sam, Z, Nemeth overall. Large difference between the top 4, all over 16 minutes 5v5 and 20 overall, and Z/Nemo in the 13-14 minute range.

Individual

Fun fact: Mikko Rantanen had 38 points in 75 games his rookie year in 2016-17

– Mikko and Mack both had a goal and an assist, Gabe had an assist. The 3 have combined for 99 points so far this year. That’s a lot.

– JT Compher returning to the lineup has had some pretty massive effects. 3 goals in 2 games including the incredible game-tyer last night is a great thing to have but what it really means is that the staff can roll 4 lines all night. The lineup we saw vs Dallas is about as good as it can get barring some prospect callups later in the year.

– On the downside, the staff gets a big thumbs down for trying to sit on a 1-goal lead for an entire period. The Avs weren’t even trying to score for the first half of the period and kept the F3 high in the zone with the defensemen for the most part. Yes, Varly had been playing great and the Avs were controlling the game but that blunder almost cost them 2 points to the team directly below them in the standings and that’s unacceptable. Besides the F3 shenanigans, JB messed with the lines and went back to his security blanket, the Nieto/Soderberg/Calvert line, and they rewarded him with getting stuck in the d-zone for 73 seconds and giving up the tying goal. Stop doing this. That line is awful defensively and one of the main reasons for the 5 game losing streak.

– If nothing else Varly earned his game check in the final 14 seconds when the Stars threw it all in front of the net and had at least 4 shot attempts. Great finish.

 

Burgundy Narrative Metric

– “Best guys being your best guys” gets a (+) Compher’s a best guy now right?
– Quality vs Quantity gets a (+) quantity excellent, quality came in late
– Power Play Watchability gets a (-) the less said about this the better
– The Dreaded Turtle gets a (-) dumb and unnecessary
– Starting Goalie Battle% gets a (+) lunchpail night for Varly
– Referee Oppression Index gets a (+) The lineys were driving me crazy with refusing to drop the puck but other than that well done.

Total: +2¾

Next up

A flight to Nashville with the Dads and a match with the Preds on Tuesday night. No, we don’t get more than one game at home consecutively anymore.

 

Thanks as always to the NHL and Natural Stat Trick for numbers and visuals