Breaking Down: Avs/Kings, Game #21

When you look at the schedule the big games that stand out are against the division leaders or a close rival or maybe the defending Cup champs. Games against the worst team in the league can be just as difficult, especially when they’re played on the road and in the middle of the night right before a major holiday. The Avs struggled to make it happen against the bottom of the league last year so a dominant victory against a team that should be dominated is a good next step. 7-3 feels a lot closer than it actually was.

Projectile Lineup

Colin Wilson and Matt Nieto returned to the ice after missing time with various LBI. Varly was in net after Grubi took the last two starts. JT Compher continues to skate with the team and could be activated in the next week if all goes well. Marko Dano was just waived so that’s definitely a sign.

Scratch: Dano, Bourque, Barbs
Injured: Compher (haut du corps)

Team Stats

The Kings are slow, everyone knows this. The heavy possession style that won them a couple Cups has become a relic from another era and the space that allowed the Avs early was startling. This game was pretty much even on the shot board until score effects took over which is a testament to the futility of playing an aging style. When the ice further opened up in the 3rd period Colorado took over in both quantity and quality then shelled up to close out the win.

Tale of the tape was +42/-53 with the bulk of the differential coming after the outcome was determined. Shots on goal in all situations favored the Kings 36-34. Game pace at 5v5 was 116.5 corsi events per hour which oddly enough makes this a high-event match.

PP went 3-4 and is now the very best in the league at 32.9% and 2nd only to the Jets at 11.8 goals per hour. The PK had an easy night against the league’s worst PP at 3-3 and moved up 3 spots to 14th at 80.5%.

TOI

Forward TOI was spread out amongst everyone thanks to the game being decided by halfway. The top line played around 14-15 minutes at 5v5 and Jost, Kerf and Sven rounded out the top 6. Sheldon Dries was low man at just under 10 minutes. Every forward except Matt Nieto got to play on PP and all were over a minute there. That’s fun and good on JB for giving a shot to the guys that normally don’t get to show their chops.

The defensive regime went Sam, EJ, Cole, Barrie, Z, Nemeth at 5v5 and basically the same overall. Like the forwards, PP time was spread around with with EJ and even Z getting a minute 5v4. Maybe they don’t hate Z after all…

Individual

 – Light night for the top line. Goal & assist for Mack, 2 helpers for Mikko and 1 for Landy.

– Of course a light night for the top guys means depth scoring was off the charts. Calvert, Wilson, Kamenev, Nemeth and Zadorov all with goals. Kerfoot had 3 assists, Jost and Carl both had 2 and Nieto & Kamenev each had 1. Ok, so we’ve solved the depth scoring thing.

– Vlad Kamenev continued his slow but sure progress. He had a season high 14:34 of ice time including 1:12 on PP and 2:25 on PK. Adding a goal and assist gives him 5 points in 16 games this year. It’s not worth it to project yet but as a 4th line center it’s definitely possible he ends up in the 20+ points range, which would be impressive.

– Alex Kerfoot has taken the 2nd scoring line center role and run with it. He’s got a solid 17 points in 21 games, wins lots of faceoffs (62%) and is the only positive CF player at 50.33%. This is all coming while raising his SOG per game nearly 50% and with a sustainable 12.9% shooting percentage. It’s easy to overlook what he’s doing when there’s a behemoth top line blowing the league out of the water but Kerf is really good.

 – Varly got his 200th NHL win last night. He let in a couple howlers, the Kings first goal was a weak grounder to short that ended up as a 3-base error, but got the job done.

Burgundy Narrative Metric

– “Best guys being your best guys” gets a (+) everyone was a best guy tonight again
– Quality vs Quantity gets a (+) not bad for both although quality lagged until the 3rd
– Power Play Watchability gets a (+) best in the league, wow
– The Dreaded Turtle gets a (-) a little unfair to say it’s a turtle when you’re up 6-1 but…
– Starting Goalie Battle% gets a (+) Varly was ok, not sure the focus was all there
– Referee Oppression Index gets a (+) A bunch of ticky-tack calls in the 2nd but they were probably just trying to keep the fans from dozing off.

Total: +5¾

Next up

Thanksgiving day in Phoenix and game vs the Yotes Friday night before a sludge game Saturday night at home vs Dallas.

Thanks as always to the NHL and Natural Stat Trick for numbers and visuals