Breaking Down: Avs/Wilds, Game #12
The second half of a back-to-back with travel against a rested team is the worst case on the schedule so it’s understandable if the Avs came out a little flat last night. They did not though, they dominated play for the most part and gave up very little. They got goalied to some extent by a great performance from Devan Dubnyk but the horrendous power play lost the game by doing zilch in 6 tries including a short 5v3. This could have easily been a convincing win but instead they get to contemplate a 3-2 loss over the next 4 days.
Projectile Lineup
Tyson Jost suffered a head injury in the 2nd period against Ottawa and has been out since. Gabe Bourque took his slot on the 4th last night. Patrik Nemeth got a night off and Mark Barberio slotted in next to Zadorov. Varly handled the net duties after backing up against the Sens.
Scratch: Nemeth, Jost (Haut du Corps)
Injured: Compher (Haut du Corps)
Team Stats
The Wilds started off by taking a too much man penalty on their first line change and then giving up a goal to Mark Barberio off a nice faceoff win by Vlad Kamenev. From there the Avs ramped up the speed and controlled the rest of the period. P2 opened with a couple of dumb penalties on Minnesota which gave the Avs over 3 minutes of PP time including a 45 second 5v3 which they did absolutely nothing with. Colorado decided to take some penalties of their own and the Wilds tied the game at 1. From there it was more boring hockey with the Avs vaguely in control until a phantom call on Nikita Zadorov gave the Wilds another PP and another PP goal. The teams traded meaningless goals in the final 3 minutes and that’s all she wrote.
Tale of the tape was +43/-27 in just under 39 minutes of 5v5 time. That’s about 108 Corsi events per hour so there was decent pace other than all the ticky-tack penalties the officials were handing out. Shots on goal in all situations were much closer with Colorado holding a 32-28 edge. The Avs struggled to create dangerous chances as usual with only 6 at 5v5, none on the straight up 5v4 PPs and only 9 total on the night.
The power play was a gruesome 0-for-6 including an ENG against. The PK killed 4 out of 5 but the first MIN goal was 2 seconds after a penalty expired so that’s somewhat misleading. Safe to say they lost the special teams battle badly.
TOI
Top 6 forwards were Mack, Landy, Mikko then a 5:30 gap to Matt Calvert, Sven and Kerf. Overall it was the top line then Carl, Sven and Kerf. Vlad Kamenev was low man 5v5 at 4:30 (but 8:22 overall) and Marko Dano only played 5:07 total with no special teams time. Only the top line plus Calvert (at 10:01) had more than 10 minutes 5v5.
The defensive regime went EJ, Barrie, Sam, Barbs, Cole and Z at 5v5 and basically the same overall. Big Z had a UBI of some sort and only played 2 shifts in the 2nd before coming back and playing with one arm in the 3rd. He ended up with only 8:16 total on the night.
Individual
– Despite playing heavy minutes, and fairly well, the top line was stymied. Landy got a goal and Mikko an assist so there’s that. Overall I’d say Mikko looked the best of the 3, Gabe was decent, Mack looked frustrated. Mack doesn’t have too many more steps he can take but the next one is tailoring his game to situations like this. Instead of pounding his head against a brick wall he needs to find the creativity to elevate himself and his linemates when the puck’s not falling.
– Shoutout to Mark Barberio for getting his first goal and point of the season in his 3rd game. He’s got a tough role right now and he provided an early spark, so exactly what you would hope for. After getting blanked in the first 10 the D now has goals in back to back games.
– Vlad Kamenev got back in the lineup vs Ottawa and continued his solid progression. I called that he needed to start putting up a point here and there to keep the staff’s interest and he did just that on Barbs’ goal. A good faceoff win and pass to the point got him his first NHL point. Congrats!
– I’m going to lay some blame on Coach Bednar’s shoulders for this one. It was a tough situation for sure but I think some of his decisions made it harder than it needed to be.
First of all, being stubborn with Carl Soderberg’s role is detracting from the depth scoring he’s looking for. You want points, use Carl’s offensive capabilities. You want a security blanket with a vet line that doesn’t produce then don’t be surprised when a game like this goes the wrong way.
Second, the forward deployment was baffling, the top line was way overused. I realize that there’s 4 days off to rest now but they worked their asses off vs Ottawa Friday night. Using the other lines to keep them fresh for the end of the game could have made a difference.
Third the power play was ineffective to say the least, which is unfortunate, but only once in 5 tries did they use the 2nd unit to start. I know it’s Ray Bennett’s job but the Head Coach has to step in once in a while when things aren’t working out. You can’t do the same thing over and over and hope something changes.
Last of all was the baffling call to pull the goalie with the late power play. There are many that believe pulling the goalie is an underused strategy and there’s some logic but I don’t think they take into consideration how easy it is to score ENGs. It’s 10x easier to score ENGs on the PK when icing isn’t a consideration so yay for the higher shot rates or whatever the thinking is but practically there are good reasons to stick with 5 skaters and a goalie for as long as possible. I like the idea of being aggressive but I think the utility of a 6th skater is limited at best and it makes negative outcomes much more likely.
Burgundy Narrative Metric
– “Best guys being your best guys” gets a (-) even with Landy’s goal and Varly playing big
– Quality vs Quantity gets a (0) Liked the quantity, the quality sucked
– Power Play Watchability gets a (-) Extremely frustrating to see great players play this badly and knowing it’s a personnel issue
– The Dreaded Turtle gets a (+) no turtle, so there’s that
– Starting Goalie Battle% gets a (+) Varly was outstanding once again
– Referee Oppression Index gets a (-) This crew was garbage. Yes I’m snapper that Minny basically won on a phantom call but objectively there were too many calls on both sides and the game was poorly managed.
Total: -1¾
Next up
Four days off then another b2b in Western Canada vs the Flames and Canucks, then another layoff. Idiotic scheduling here.
Thanks as always to the NHL and Natural Stat Trick for numbers and visuals
