Unraveling the mystery of the Colorado Avalanche development system woes has been a complicated process of fighting through all the perceptions and caveats while also recognizing the isolated cases where a player has broken though. It’s been a frustrating cycle with few answers but there seems to be one common thread, which through recognition can hopefully shine some light on where the organization’s system functions and fails. And it all centers around two years.
It is important to understand the general prospect cycle in which the vast majority of cases Entry Level Contracts and periods of waiver exemption is three years as prospects begin their professional careers. This is mandated in the Collective Bargaining Agreement and no organization can avoid it. The number of players that get waived by their original organizations and still “make it” on that team as an established regular roster player (generally accepted as 100 NHL games played) is virtually non-existent. Therefore it is a clock all organizations must abide by whether they acknowledge it or not. Even the famous “Detroit Model” and their infinite patience graduated third year pros to the NHL.
So we’ve established that a prospect gets three years to make the NHL before he’s waiver eligible and loses any prospect value, so then why is the cutoff in the Avalanche organization two years? Let’s examine every player drafted or signed as a free agent since the last lockout who has “made it” on the team and notice a pattern.
Nathan MacKinnon (2013 year acquired – 2013 year became Avalanche regular)
First overall pick played immediately in the NHL, enough said.
Mikko Rantanen (2015-2016)
Drafted and famously spent a year in the AHL with San Antonio playing 56 games, was a NHL regular the following year.
JT Compher (2015-2017)
As part of the Ryan O’Reilly trade Compher spent the rest of that season at Michigan and then signed with Colorado after his junior year. He spent half a season and 41 games in the AHL before getting called up for good following the Jarome Iginla “trade”. He was a Avalanche mainstay to start the 2017-18 season.
Nikita Zadorov (2015-2016)
Also part of the O’Reilly trade as well, Zadorov was sent to the minors for the bulk of his first year with the organization and played 52 AHL games but was promoted to regular the following season.
Tyson Jost (2016-2017)
Spent the season after he was drafted at North Dakota but signed that spring to start the Avalanche rebuild. Though he was a NHL regular from that point on Jost did have 13 games in the AHL mostly for conditioning after an injury sprinkled through his first two seasons.
Alexander Kerfoot (2017-2017)
Signed as a NCAA free agent and stepped right into the NHL.
Samuel Girard (2017-2017)
As a key piece of the Matt Duchene trade return the 19-year old Girard played on the Avalanche immediately.
Cale Makar (2017-2019)
The former fourth overall pick spent two years in college before turning pro but spent not a single day in the minor leagues before becoming an Avalanche franchise cornerstone.
Pavel Francouz (2018-2019)
The 28-year old established KHL goaltender signed as a free agent with the Avalanche and after starting 49 games for the Colorado Eagles in 2018-19 he was promoted to NHL backup the following season.
Ryan Graves (2018-2019)
One of the few minor league successes on the list Graves played over 200 games in the Rangers organization before getting traded to Colorado at the trade deadline in a fresh start prospect swap. After 53 more AHL games it paid off as he stuck on the Avalanche a year later when his waiver exemption expired and became a regular player the following season.
Logan O’Connor (2018-2020)
The one other player who grew through the minors is the only name on the list to have spent the bulk of two years in the AHL with 104 games before earning a permanent spot on the Avalanche to start his third pro year after signing as an undrafted NCAA free agent.
Bowen Byram (2019-2020)
Another top four pick who didn’t play in the NHL immediately but spent one year back in junior and then the organization made room for Byram in his 19-year old season to play with the Avalanche for good.
Alex Newhook (2019-2021)
Also drafted in 2019, Newhook is the one who flirted the most with the two-year rule but signed after his sophomore year in college. He spent 18 games total in the AHL between that spring and early the next fall but still spent 71 games on the Avalanche in the 2021-22 season to fully graduate to the NHL.
Please note that the “two year rule” is time in the organization at all, not just time in the minor league system. A two-year timeline for those in their mid-twenties seems fair but for those who are drafted as teenagers and have to wait two years before signing a contract at all and then are expected to patiently work through the minors through the length of a three-year ELC are screwed before they even begin.
Also note the length of time it took those who were assigned to actually stay and play in the AHL (50% of this list) the average number of games before becoming NHL regulars is just 59 games.
So the conclusion of this “research” into the Avalanche organizational history shows that for a player to make it on the Avalanche from their development system they need to do so within two years and ideally between 40-60 AHL games played.
Talent evaluation will forever be important but the understanding on why and how players make it to the end goal of helping on a NHL roster is so critical to the process that it can’t be ignored.